Betting Lines
| Spread | USM -11.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 137.5 Under |
| Money | USM -700 ARST +550 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | USM win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | USM +16 | 130 | Won |
| Massey | USM -18.8 (-2.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 130.4 (-0.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 97% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 99% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | USM -16.5 (-0.5) | 133.2 (-3.2) | 89% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | USM -11.3 (+4.7) | 131.4 (-1.4) | 86% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | USM -15.4 (+0.6) | 134.8 (-4.8) | 89% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | USM -16.2 (-0.2) | 135.9 (-5.9) | 89% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 25, 2026 | ARST 89 – 84 USM |
| Dec 20, 2025 | ARST 93 – 86 USM |
| Feb 13, 2025 | ARST 101 – 67 USM |
| Jan 30, 2025 | ARST 81 – 68 USM |
| Feb 1, 2024 | ARST 78 – 71 USM |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | USM | ARST |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 25-8 | 13-20 |
| Conference | 14-4 | 4-14 |
| Home | 15-0 | 10-8 |
| Away | 8-7 | 2-11 |
| Neutral | 2-1 | 1-1 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 0-5 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 72.4 | 63.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 67.5 | 68.5 |
| Massey | 6.8 (#79) | -8.4 (#316) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.56 (#57) | -1.48 (#307) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.87 (#64) | -1.95 (#314) |
| RPI | 0.590 (#37) | 0.410 (#328) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | USM | ARST |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.1% | 41.3% |
| 3PT% | 32.4% | 33.2% |
| REB / G | 37.6 | 34.8 |
| OREB / G | 11.8 | 10.8 |
| AST / TO | 1.23 | 0.94 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.2% | 46.7% |
| TOV% | 17.8% | 19.8% |
| ORB% | 33.6% | 30.8% |
| FT Rate | 21.4% | 22.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.6% | 50.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.9% | 17.5% |
| DRB% | 71.6% | 73.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 21.4% | 25.7% |
Game Analysis
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