Betting Lines
| Spread | UCD -8.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 131.5 Over |
| Money | CSUB +333 UCD -333 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | CSUB win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UCD +21 | 137 | Lost |
| Massey | UCD -4.9 (-16.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 131.3 (+5.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 31% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 27% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UCD -6.1 (-14.9) | 132.9 (+4.1) | 24% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UCD -5.7 (-15.3) | 128.8 (+8.2) | 23% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UCD -5.3 (-15.7) | 133.3 (+3.7) | 30% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UCD -6.1 (-14.9) | 134.9 (+2.1) | 24% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 31, 2026 | UCD 80 – 72 CSUB |
| Jan 3, 2026 | CSUB 81 – 79 UCD |
| Feb 21, 2025 | CSUB 71 – 66 UCD |
| Jan 3, 2025 | CSUB 75 – 64 UCD |
| Feb 25, 2024 | CSUB 75 – 56 UCD |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | CSUB | UCD |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 11-22 | 18-14 |
| Conference | 6-14 | 11-8 |
| Home | 6-8 | 10-4 |
| Away | 3-12 | 5-9 |
| Neutral | 2-2 | 3-1 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 59.3 | 73.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 66.1 | 71.7 |
| Massey | -7.8 (#305) | 0.5 (#160) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.44 (#298) | -0.03 (#180) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.63 (#291) | 0.11 (#166) |
| RPI | 0.410 (#330) | 0.499 (#175) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | CSUB | UCD |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 39.2% | 44.6% |
| 3PT% | 31.8% | 33.4% |
| REB / G | 32.5 | 36.7 |
| OREB / G | 9.7 | 12.2 |
| AST / TO | 0.72 | 0.83 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 42.9% | 50.5% |
| TOV% | 21.0% | 21.6% |
| ORB% | 28.5% | 34.6% |
| FT Rate | 19.4% | 27.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.3% | 51.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.8% | 21.7% |
| DRB% | 71.1% | 70.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 26.4% | 22.8% |
Game Analysis
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