Betting Lines
| Spread | TAR -4.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 139.5 Over |
| Money | TAR -188 UTU +145 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | TAR win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | TAR +2 | 146 | Won |
| Massey | TAR -2.2 (-0.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 144.0 (+2.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 73% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 75% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | TAR -0.9 (+1.1) | 141.8 (+4.2) | 66% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | TAR -0.8 (+1.2) | 138.1 (+7.9) | 67% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | TAR -1.9 (+0.1) | 143.3 (+2.7) | 64% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | TAR -1.5 (+0.5) | 142.8 (+3.2) | 62% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 21, 2026 | UTU 80 – 72 TAR |
| Jan 31, 2026 | UTU 65 – 59 TAR |
| Jan 18, 2026 | UTU 75 – 71 TAR |
| Jan 31, 2025 | TAR 61 – 54 UTU |
| Jan 12, 2025 | UTU 58 – 54 TAR |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | TAR | UTU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 17-17 | 14-19 |
| Conference | 9-9 | 5-13 |
| Home | 13-2 | 9-5 |
| Away | 2-12 | 3-13 |
| Neutral | 3-3 | 2-1 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 67.6 | 73.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 70.1 | 75.0 |
| Massey | -1.8 (#212) | -0.5 (#177) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.10 (#164) | -0.26 (#199) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.06 (#170) | -0.33 (#204) |
| RPI | 0.515 (#152) | 0.488 (#199) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | TAR | UTU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.3% | 44.3% |
| 3PT% | 30.8% | 36.6% |
| REB / G | 30.8 | 34.4 |
| OREB / G | 9.3 | 10.3 |
| AST / TO | 0.78 | 0.81 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 45.9% | 51.9% |
| TOV% | 18.1% | 21.5% |
| ORB% | 27.2% | 30.3% |
| FT Rate | 32.6% | 31.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.3% | 55.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 22.9% | 19.3% |
| DRB% | 68.4% | 75.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 31.9% | 23.4% |
Game Analysis
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