I have got the sharpest knife, so I get the biggest slice. "Revolution Rock" - The Clash
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Baseline — Schedule

Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.

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91–35 on winners spread MAE 8.3 126 games
Matchup Spread Total Home win Result Pick
VCU @ Saint Louis +9.9 160.7 80% 75–88 ✓
Saint Peter's @ Iona +1.3 142.2 58% 64–72 ✓
Sacred Heart @ Fairfield +4.6 151.8 71% 68–78 ✓
Princeton @ Brown -0.1 132.2 45% 71–80 ✗
Milwaukee @ Detroit Mercy +2.7 149.9 65% 86–91 ✓
Green Bay @ Oakland +4.7 153.2 69% 73–68 ✗
Niagara @ Mount St. Mary's +5.2 129.5 65% 63–76 ✓
Canisius @ Rider -0.2 129.4 39% 72–66 ✓
Marist @ Manhattan -6.4 137.0 26% 84–70 ✓
Indiana @ Purdue +11.2 151.6 86% 64–93 ✓
Siena @ Merrimack +3.6 130.2 69% 72–79 ✓
Bowling Green @ Miami (OH) +9.5 150.1 80% 77–91 ✓
Florida @ Ole Miss -11.5 145.0 19% 94–75 ✓
Creighton @ St. John's +12.3 152.4 87% 52–81 ✓
North Carolina Central @ Howard +12.2 141.3 87% 67–100 ✓
Loyola Chicago @ Saint Joseph's +9.7 138.4 86% 61–75 ✓
East Carolina @ Charlotte +6.3 145.7 76% 56–68 ✓
Rutgers @ Minnesota +7.7 134.0 77% 61–80 ✓
Wake Forest @ Virginia Tech +3.6 149.3 72% 63–82 ✓
Florida State @ Clemson +9.6 144.2 81% 70–65 ✗
Cincinnati @ Kansas +10.5 135.2 87% 84–68 ✗
North Carolina @ Syracuse -2.8 149.7 39% 77–64 ✓
Binghamton @ UMass Lowell +10.1 146.9 86% 79–92 ✓
UAlbany @ UMBC +7.9 139.4 78% 62–66 ✓
Western Carolina @ VMI -7.3 149.9 25% 81–62 ✓
Chattanooga @ The Citadel -2.7 142.0 38% 93–72 ✓
Texas State @ Louisiana -2.0 136.4 34% 54–67 ✗
Marshall @ Coastal Carolina -0.2 150.2 53% 75–79 ✗
Georgia Southern @ App State +6.6 143.4 76% 74–89 ✓
Mississippi State @ South Carolina +0.8 148.4 56% 89–97 ✓
Xavier @ Butler +4.9 156.0 75% 75–80 ✓
Navy @ Army -8.5 138.1 16% 81–63 ✓
Penn State @ Nebraska +17.3 144.7 90% 64–87 ✓
Miami @ Virginia +6.7 142.6 76% 83–86 ✓
Tennessee @ Vanderbilt +5.1 149.5 64% 69–65 ✗
Duquesne @ Dayton +5.7 150.1 73% 66–78 ✓
Davidson @ Fordham -0.6 129.3 52% 59–63 ✗
Notre Dame @ Pittsburgh +0.2 136.9 51% 68–73 ✓
Loyola Maryland @ Colgate +9.4 147.9 83% 98–101 ✓
Dartmouth @ Columbia +5.6 145.3 73% 64–63 ✗
Kansas City @ North Dakota State +19.2 145.4 91% 59–95 ✓
Central Connecticut @ Chicago State -3.5 137.9 30% 51–70 ✗
Harvard @ Cornell +3.9 154.0 63% 73–54 ✗
Pennsylvania @ Yale +10.8 150.3 85% 70–74 ✓
Wagner @ Saint Francis -2.6 151.6 40% 65–56 ✓
Long Island University @ Mercyhurst -2.7 134.7 39% 83–91 ✗
Le Moyne @ Stonehill -3.0 133.2 31% 68–77 ✗
Hofstra @ Northeastern -9.8 144.2 19% 82–68 ✓
Samford @ Mercer +3.1 150.3 63% 86–89 ✓
Central Arkansas @ Florida Gulf Coast -1.8 153.5 42% 71–75 ✗
SIU Edwardsville @ Tennessee State +2.9 138.9 68% 53–80 ✓
Delaware @ Middle Tennessee +7.8 140.2 80% 66–78 ✓
Georgia Tech @ Louisville +23.0 159.2 91% 70–87 ✓
Kansas State @ Texas Tech +13.6 153.3 88% 72–100 ✓
Rhode Island @ La Salle -3.6 132.1 32% 46–59 ✗
Arizona @ Houston +3.1 139.4 65% 73–66 ✗
Valparaiso @ UIC +7.0 138.5 79% 71–67 ✗
Washington @ Maryland -5.1 139.2 32% 60–64 ✗
UNLV @ Air Force -13.3 148.3 13% 91–66 ✓
North Dakota @ South Dakota State +7.1 145.9 79% 83–91 ✓
Ohio @ Northern Illinois -3.5 143.9 34% 74–66 ✓
Arkansas State @ UL Monroe -13.2 161.6 14% 102–94 ✓
Old Dominion @ Southern Miss +2.1 145.0 63% 81–86 ✓
West Georgia @ Queens University +9.3 158.6 84% 84–91 ✓
Utah Valley @ UT Arlington -4.2 135.9 31% 66–54 ✓
Missouri State @ Florida International +4.3 149.9 69% 67–70 ✓
Oklahoma State @ Colorado +2.5 159.4 62% 69–83 ✓
Texas @ Georgia +4.2 162.7 70% 80–91 ✓
North Florida @ Stetson +4.0 158.7 66% 71–76 ✓
Jacksonville State @ Sam Houston +9.1 141.2 83% 78–82 ✓
James Madison @ Georgia State -1.1 139.8 47% 80–65 ✓
Missouri @ Arkansas +12.4 162.2 87% 86–94 ✓
Evansville @ Murray State +13.4 151.4 87% 75–88 ✓
South Carolina State @ Norfolk State +9.7 139.2 87% 71–90 ✓
Arizona State @ Baylor +5.0 155.9 68% 68–73 ✓
Oregon @ USC +7.2 147.5 79% 71–70 ✗
Winthrop @ High Point +7.8 159.5 79% 87–89 ✓
Longwood @ Charleston Southern +3.7 152.5 63% 107–96 ✗
San José State @ Boise State +13.5 146.8 87% 69–84 ✓
Boston College @ SMU +15.4 145.2 88% 70–94 ✓
Maine @ New Hampshire +1.8 134.6 48% 61–58 ✗
Monmouth @ Charleston +5.2 139.8 72% 63–74 ✓
Hampton @ Stony Brook +5.3 133.7 71% 72–79 ✓
UNC Wilmington @ Campbell -2.8 145.5 38% 73–68 ✓
East Tennessee State @ UNC Greensboro -6.0 149.1 24% 87–75 ✓
Troy @ South Alabama +0.4 146.4 56% 54–65 ✓
Southeast Missouri State @ Little Rock -2.6 138.3 40% 70–65 ✓
Lindenwood @ Tennessee Tech -0.0 145.9 47% 57–72 ✗
Southern Utah @ Abilene Christian +4.6 137.2 69% 83–87 ✓
Western Kentucky @ Liberty +8.3 147.2 82% 94–73 ✗
Radford @ UNC Asheville +3.1 144.1 65% 73–74 ✓
Maryland Eastern Shore @ Coppin State -4.0 125.8 27% 65–71 ✗
UT Rio Grande Valley @ SE Louisiana -5.0 133.5 27% 96–75 ✓
Houston Christian @ Northwestern State +2.1 131.6 61% 53–71 ✓
Morehead State @ Western Illinois -8.5 142.6 25% 81–59 ✓
Southern Indiana @ Eastern Illinois +4.7 133.6 57% 70–68 ✗
Jackson State @ Alcorn State +0.5 147.6 64% 65–83 ✓
Delaware State @ Morgan State +4.2 136.7 76% 68–82 ✓
West Virginia @ TCU +5.3 132.2 68% 54–60 ✓
Western Michigan @ Central Michigan +2.5 146.3 64% 70–83 ✓
Eastern Michigan @ Toledo +5.3 141.7 72% 75–94 ✓
UC Davis @ UC Riverside -2.5 145.0 41% 78–73 ✓
Eastern Washington @ Portland State +5.6 149.0 77% 67–55 ✗
Utah Tech @ Tarleton State +1.3 141.6 57% 80–72 ✗
Louisiana Tech @ Kennesaw State +4.4 144.5 69% 55–58 ✓
Presbyterian @ South Carolina Upstate +1.6 137.6 55% 74–76 ✓
North Alabama @ Lipscomb +11.2 148.6 86% 51–73 ✓
UConn @ Villanova +0.1 141.7 59% 73–63 ✗
Alabama A&M @ Bethune-Cookman +4.2 139.1 70% 76–85 ✓
Alabama @ LSU -4.1 169.9 33% 90–83 ✓
Southern Illinois @ Northern Iowa +6.8 132.1 78% 59–57 ✗
Loyola Marymount @ San Diego -0.1 147.7 52% 77–65 ✓
St. Bonaventure @ Richmond +4.7 144.9 71% 94–99 ✓
Temple @ Wichita State +9.9 142.5 82% 57–69 ✓
Grambling @ Southern +2.3 140.1 62% 73–87 ✓
San Diego State @ Colorado State -1.0 138.7 49% 74–83 ✗
Stanford @ California +3.9 147.3 73% 66–72 ✓
St. Thomas-Minnesota @ Denver -1.7 160.3 32% 80–82 ✗
Buffalo @ Massachusetts +3.5 154.5 68% 86–82 ✗
Nicholls @ Stephen F. Austin +15.1 143.7 87% 78–81 ✓
Incarnate Word @ East Texas A&M +1.0 139.2 50% 82–73 ✗
Montana State @ Idaho State -2.3 142.4 43% 76–91 ✗
Georgetown @ Seton Hall +6.1 135.0 72% 47–51 ✓
Michigan @ Duke +0.8 145.1 47% 63–68 ✓
Prairie View A&M @ Arkansas-Pine Bluff +2.9 155.7 62% 82–84 ✓
Alabama State @ Florida A&M -0.1 140.1 45% 63–76 ✗

Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.