You'll work harder with a gun in your back, for a bowl of rice a day. "Holiday In Cambodia" - The Dead Kennedys
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Baseline — Schedule

Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.

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87–31 on winners spread MAE 8.3 118 games
Matchup Spread Total Home win Result Pick
Iona @ Siena -3.7 142.6 36% 53–70 ✗
Manhattan @ Niagara +5.4 131.6 71% 62–68 ✓
Rider @ Marist -1.7 132.1 39% 68–52 ✓
Saint Louis @ Davidson -1.2 144.6 44% 74–70 ✓
Detroit Mercy @ Robert Morris +1.0 147.8 56% 77–85 ✓
Purdue Fort Wayne @ Cleveland State +5.1 141.1 74% 74–79 ✓
North Dakota @ North Dakota State +5.3 145.1 71% 75–91 ✓
Buffalo @ Kent State +12.0 149.4 86% 68–74 ✓
Oakland @ Youngstown State +11.7 159.1 84% 73–77 ✓
Air Force @ New Mexico +12.3 147.1 86% 73–81 ✓
Boston College @ Virginia +15.3 133.3 85% 57–76 ✓
Auburn @ West Virginia +5.8 141.2 76% 77–80 ✓
Temple @ UCF +7.7 140.8 75% 77–70 ✗
Louisville @ Notre Dame +9.5 142.4 84% 62–76 ✓
UMBC @ Vermont +4.4 144.7 71% 68–74 ✓
Minnesota @ Northwestern +12.3 131.5 86% 61–81 ✓
Northeastern @ Delaware +5.4 137.3 75% 78–81 ✓
Xavier @ Creighton +4.9 158.1 75% 67–84 ✓
Bucknell @ Loyola Maryland -0.5 132.1 43% 66–80 ✗
Holy Cross @ Army +8.4 140.9 79% 55–66 ✓
NC State @ Wake Forest +1.8 159.2 58% 79–77 ✗
UMass Lowell @ New Hampshire -2.1 142.6 39% 65–69 ✗
Western Carolina @ VMI -3.7 142.4 33% 71–65 ✓
Mercer @ The Citadel -0.4 136.8 52% 74–65 ✓
Saint Francis @ Central Connecticut +0.5 139.2 49% 74–88 ✓
Stetson @ Queens University +1.9 157.0 63% 65–71 ✓
Alabama @ Oklahoma -5.9 148.6 35% 69–93 ✗
Iowa State @ Missouri -0.5 141.5 48% 61–78 ✗
Marquette @ DePaul -9.5 157.8 20% 89–69 ✓
Lafayette @ Colgate +8.6 135.2 82% 57–69 ✓
Missouri State @ Murray State +0.6 136.3 56% 71–74 ✓
Northern Iowa @ Indiana State +4.5 144.8 71% 71–79 ✓
Bryant @ Binghamton -4.8 152.7 31% 67–84 ✗
American University @ Navy +2.7 133.2 62% 73–69 ✗
Harvard @ Pennsylvania +1.0 137.7 59% 68–83 ✓
Columbia @ Dartmouth +8.2 142.0 82% 73–83 ✓
Brown @ Cornell +10.1 156.2 81% 73–80 ✓
La Salle @ Rhode Island +4.0 137.3 69% 70–72 ✓
George Washington @ Fordham +3.4 150.6 69% 70–85 ✓
Radford @ South Carolina Upstate -4.4 134.0 36% 55–52 ✓
Winthrop @ Presbyterian -1.1 136.8 41% 76–58 ✓
High Point @ Gardner-Webb +8.2 142.3 81% 58–86 ✓
UNC Asheville @ Campbell +0.0 138.0 43% 78–65 ✗
Samford @ Wofford -0.7 149.9 45% 77–85 ✗
Texas Tech @ LSU -1.3 134.0 41% 76–68 ✓
Bowling Green @ Toledo +11.0 162.9 85% 77–91 ✓
Ohio @ Akron +5.9 144.9 77% 77–83 ✓
Sacred Heart @ Stonehill +2.0 139.9 58% 81–82 ✓
Monmouth @ North Carolina A&T +10.6 140.6 85% 79–64 ✗
Cincinnati @ Houston +15.1 133.2 87% 69–75 ✓
Duke @ Georgia Tech -8.3 135.2 23% 86–43 ✓
UAB @ Rice -1.7 155.9 45% 70–52 ✓
Fairleigh Dickinson @ Merrimack +0.4 139.6 38% 78–71 ✗
Texas State @ Southern Miss +11.1 134.1 86% 58–67 ✓
South Dakota State @ Western Illinois -0.4 138.2 50% 73–81 ✗
Lindenwood @ Tennessee State +4.1 142.4 65% 66–83 ✓
Northern Colorado @ Northern Arizona +1.3 152.6 60% 73–83 ✓
Illinois @ Wisconsin -0.8 131.1 45% 61–51 ✓
SIU Edwardsville @ Morehead State -2.2 138.7 44% 50–55 ✗
Eastern Michigan @ Miami (OH) +4.0 157.9 69% 74–69 ✗
TCU @ Mississippi State -1.0 131.3 47% 74–81 ✗
Arkansas @ Baylor +7.3 146.3 78% 64–67 ✓
Hofstra @ Charleston +6.8 146.0 75% 85–81 ✗
Miami @ Pittsburgh +1.6 149.0 57% 68–71 ✓
Western Kentucky @ Florida Atlantic +15.2 142.5 87% 63–70 ✓
Jackson State @ Grambling +8.2 136.7 79% 66–78 ✓
Coppin State @ Maryland Eastern Shore +6.9 150.0 78% 75–94 ✓
Louisiana Tech @ UTSA -5.7 144.3 28% 66–55 ✓
Seton Hall @ Butler -0.5 133.5 49% 70–49 ✓
Richmond @ Dayton +6.9 131.4 74% 60–86 ✓
Duquesne @ Massachusetts +0.7 145.0 57% 79–87 ✓
New Mexico State @ Utah Valley +10.8 148.0 86% 72–77 ✓
Chattanooga @ East Tennessee State -0.1 147.1 50% 73–64 ✓
Troy @ South Alabama -0.4 137.1 48% 60–77 ✗
UL Monroe @ James Madison +13.1 145.9 85% 45–58 ✓
Old Dominion @ Coastal Carolina -2.2 142.1 40% 60–59 ✓
Milwaukee @ Northern Kentucky +2.6 139.1 64% 75–74 ✗
William & Mary @ Towson +11.1 136.0 86% 73–92 ✓
Drexel @ Elon -7.2 133.3 24% 58–72 ✗
Stony Brook @ Hampton +0.0 138.3 44% 71–66 ✗
UC San Diego @ UC Riverside +8.8 142.8 81% 65–72 ✓
UC Davis @ Long Beach State +2.4 155.4 60% 72–75 ✓
Jacksonville @ Central Arkansas -4.5 139.6 27% 74–64 ✓
Alabama A&M @ Florida A&M -2.0 130.8 30% 61–56 ✓
Alabama State @ Bethune-Cookman +0.0 141.7 47% 62–64 ✓
Morgan State @ Delaware State -5.3 145.7 33% 62–64 ✗
South Carolina State @ Norfolk State +13.0 154.7 88% 68–82 ✓
McNeese @ Texas A&M-Corpus Christi +9.1 151.8 82% 72–83 ✓
Lamar @ Northwestern State +14.9 145.5 87% 65–80 ✓
Nebraska @ Maryland +8.1 132.1 80% 63–82 ✓
Ball State @ Northern Illinois -0.5 147.0 52% 87–69 ✓
Arkansas State @ App State +9.3 131.0 83% 51–63 ✓
Southern Indiana @ UT Martin +1.3 155.7 61% 83–86 ✓
Southeast Missouri State @ Eastern Illinois -2.9 150.3 38% 79–68 ✓
Little Rock @ Tennessee Tech +6.0 150.1 69% 91–89 ✗
Clemson @ Florida State -4.8 144.7 31% 82–81 ✓
Saint Peter's @ Mount St. Mary's +3.5 123.9 52% 73–62 ✗
Nicholls @ Incarnate Word -2.6 144.8 41% 67–69 ✗
Pacific @ Santa Clara +11.1 158.4 84% 95–89 ✗
Idaho State @ Idaho +1.6 144.0 57% 95–91 ✗
Weber State @ Eastern Washington +5.5 138.5 75% 71–75 ✓
Lipscomb @ Kennesaw State +6.3 146.0 74% 72–85 ✓
Austin Peay @ Jacksonville State +4.1 132.2 67% 53–70 ✓
Arizona @ Washington -6.2 152.6 32% 95–72 ✓
Houston Christian @ East Texas A&M +8.5 148.8 79% 76–77 ✓
SE Louisiana @ LSU New Orleans -4.1 158.9 32% 80–64 ✓
Seattle U @ Stephen F. Austin +0.9 140.7 54% 65–79 ✓
Texas @ Tennessee +8.4 137.3 82% 71–82 ✓
Florida @ Kansas State +7.0 144.0 79% 50–64 ✓
North Carolina Central @ Howard +1.0 144.3 60% 67–71 ✓
UTEP @ North Texas +9.2 124.0 80% 42–52 ✓
South Carolina @ Georgia +10.9 135.5 86% 78–81 ✓
St. Bonaventure @ VCU +10.5 133.1 84% 61–58 ✗
Charleston Southern @ Longwood +8.7 142.9 76% 75–63 ✗
North Florida @ North Alabama +3.2 155.8 65% 78–91 ✓
Prairie View A&M @ Texas Southern +1.6 137.2 54% 89–74 ✗
Mississippi Valley State @ Arkansas-Pine Bluff +9.4 132.8 83% 72–88 ✓
Alcorn State @ Southern +5.0 149.4 69% 68–80 ✓

Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.