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Baseline — Schedule

Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.

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50–17 on winners spread MAE 7.2 67 games
Matchup Spread Total Home win Result Pick
Middle Tennessee @ Florida Atlantic +9.6 137.0 84% 67–85 ✓
SMU @ Memphis +13.1 151.3 88% 84–99 ✓
Western Kentucky @ Florida International -0.1 144.6 46% 69–78 ✗
Fairfield @ Mount St. Mary's -0.2 128.5 40% 63–60 ✓
Iowa @ Michigan State +1.9 150.7 63% 61–63 ✓
Longwood @ Radford +2.2 133.9 62% 59–63 ✓
Long Island University @ Sacred Heart +12.9 147.3 83% 74–70 ✗
Merrimack @ Central Connecticut +2.6 125.2 51% 64–61 ✗
Saint Francis @ Fairleigh Dickinson +2.4 156.1 56% 82–87 ✓
UL Monroe @ Marshall +16.3 146.3 89% 86–82 ✗
Coastal Carolina @ James Madison +13.9 155.3 85% 69–75 ✓
South Dakota @ Western Illinois +6.4 142.0 76% 72–75 ✓
SIU Edwardsville @ Tennessee Tech -2.5 142.0 40% 68–80 ✗
Little Rock @ Morehead State +5.7 146.3 71% 72–76 ✓
Lindenwood @ UT Martin +9.9 145.1 84% 59–66 ✓
Milwaukee @ Wright State +0.4 156.3 45% 86–93 ✓
Green Bay @ Northern Kentucky +17.1 133.6 90% 50–68 ✓
Delaware @ Hampton -6.9 143.7 29% 66–67 ✗
Drexel @ North Carolina A&T -2.5 140.5 39% 55–68 ✗
Monmouth @ UNC Wilmington +15.8 129.4 90% 49–52 ✓
Hofstra @ Elon -11.7 138.8 14% 82–65 ✓
Stony Brook @ William & Mary +3.9 132.7 65% 74–77 ✓
Northeastern @ Towson +9.9 134.4 83% 63–72 ✓
Florida Gulf Coast @ Queens University +0.5 149.6 49% 82–84 ✓
Jacksonville @ North Alabama -2.4 136.8 42% 62–80 ✗
Stetson @ Liberty +11.2 139.8 83% 45–74 ✓
Austin Peay @ Kennesaw State +10.2 140.3 85% 57–84 ✓
Charlotte @ Rice +0.3 143.4 49% 63–65 ✓
Utah Tech @ Tarleton State +1.5 142.8 62% 72–74 ✓
Grand Canyon @ Abilene Christian -5.2 144.1 31% 75–73 ✓
Troy @ Louisiana +3.7 143.4 68% 57–72 ✓
Arkansas State @ Southern Miss +16.2 135.9 89% 57–73 ✓
Old Dominion @ South Alabama +1.6 137.4 56% 66–64 ✗
Georgia Southern @ Texas State +3.3 128.4 61% 67–70 ✓
South Dakota State @ St. Thomas +0.8 142.6 53% 54–60 ✓
Omaha @ Kansas City +5.0 138.2 74% 61–64 ✓
Denver @ Oral Roberts +18.0 158.3 89% 61–102 ✓
North Florida @ Central Arkansas -1.4 158.8 44% 85–88 ✗
Nicholls @ Texas A&M-Corpus Christi +3.4 147.5 63% 86–96 ✓
East Texas A&M @ Lamar -4.3 141.6 31% 62–57 ✓
Seattle U @ Sam Houston +6.7 139.7 74% 40–55 ✓
Tennessee State @ Southeast Missouri State +5.9 153.0 74% 75–92 ✓
McNeese @ Incarnate Word +0.9 145.0 57% 65–70 ✓
LSU New Orleans @ SE Louisiana +9.6 158.5 84% 87–92 ✓
Purdue @ Michigan -3.8 135.4 37% 75–70 ✓
UCLA @ USC -4.0 134.2 42% 64–77 ✗
Colorado @ Oregon +3.9 140.3 71% 69–75 ✓
UTSA @ North Texas +16.4 126.5 88% 59–63 ✓
Louisiana Tech @ UAB +8.9 151.6 79% 59–65 ✓
Houston Christian @ Northwestern State +13.6 155.1 88% 63–82 ✓
Utah Valley @ Southern Utah +1.2 153.4 52% 67–79 ✓
Eastern Illinois @ Southern Indiana +10.1 145.8 84% 74–78 ✓
Weber State @ Idaho +0.1 137.3 48% 73–65 ✗
Idaho State @ Eastern Washington +8.6 143.9 82% 68–81 ✓
Lipscomb @ Jacksonville State -3.9 138.4 35% 67–72 ✗
Portland @ Loyola Marymount +7.9 153.7 81% 60–79 ✓
San Diego @ Pepperdine +3.7 162.6 63% 87–78 ✗
Long Beach State @ Cal Poly -2.6 142.6 38% 70–52 ✓
UC San Diego @ Cal State Northridge -0.4 131.2 39% 65–57 ✓
UC Davis @ Cal State Bakersfield -6.1 134.9 24% 79–58 ✓
UC Irvine @ Cal State Fullerton -1.9 141.9 40% 61–62 ✗
Montana State @ Portland State -2.6 143.3 36% 75–66 ✓
Montana @ Sacramento State +0.6 134.1 58% 48–67 ✓
Arizona State @ Washington -0.7 145.1 48% 66–69 ✗
Utah @ Oregon State -8.1 130.4 25% 63–44 ✓
Arizona @ Washington State -2.1 144.7 39% 63–58 ✓
UC Santa Barbara @ Hawai'i +0.0 131.2 40% 65–64 ✗

Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.