I just keep on rolling along with the grace of the Lord above. "Heartbreaker" - Led Zeppelin
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Baseline — Schedule

Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.

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35–13 on winners spread MAE 8.7 48 games
Matchup Spread Total Home win Result Pick
Houston @ UCF -6.7 132.6 20% 82–71 ✓
Georgia @ Tennessee +17.3 132.9 89% 41–70 ✓
West Virginia @ Texas Tech +0.6 141.7 52% 76–61 ✗
South Florida @ Temple +4.9 141.4 72% 76–79 ✓
Lehigh @ Holy Cross -1.4 137.5 33% 74–68 ✓
Loyola Maryland @ Lafayette +8.1 124.5 74% 46–62 ✓
Army @ American University +3.3 140.6 66% 61–63 ✓
Wake Forest @ Pittsburgh +3.0 151.5 62% 79–81 ✓
Vermont @ Binghamton -4.6 135.4 33% 80–55 ✓
UMass Lowell @ Maine -4.3 146.8 35% 70–75 ✗
UMBC @ NJIT -3.9 151.3 35% 65–69 ✗
Navy @ Bucknell -0.5 137.8 50% 63–46 ✓
Wisconsin @ Maryland +5.3 129.1 66% 55–73 ✓
Northwestern @ Nebraska -1.6 132.1 38% 78–63 ✓
South Carolina @ Florida +17.4 134.8 90% 60–81 ✓
Saint Joseph's @ George Washington +3.9 151.0 68% 91–92 ✓
Richmond @ Massachusetts +0.7 137.9 56% 76–85 ✓
Loyola Chicago @ Duquesne +10.0 142.3 84% 58–72 ✓
George Mason @ VCU +6.7 139.2 76% 52–72 ✓
Fordham @ St. Bonaventure +1.6 135.3 57% 79–68 ✗
Dayton @ Rhode Island -7.4 131.9 24% 70–75 ✗
South Carolina Upstate @ Gardner-Webb +5.7 130.8 73% 66–78 ✓
Charleston Southern @ Winthrop +0.7 149.9 58% 64–76 ✓
Campbell @ High Point +0.0 144.7 46% 72–64 ✗
The Citadel @ Western Carolina +5.1 140.3 76% 81–70 ✗
Wofford @ Chattanooga +4.5 150.9 70% 85–80 ✗
VMI @ UNC Greensboro +13.5 134.2 87% 50–62 ✓
East Tennessee State @ Mercer +2.3 134.1 61% 67–71 ✓
Samford @ Furman +5.0 151.1 67% 84–91 ✓
IU Indianapolis @ Purdue Fort Wayne +15.7 143.8 90% 75–81 ✓
Stonehill @ Hartford -7.0 132.7 18% 56–73 ✗
UT Rio Grande Valley @ Stephen F. Austin +10.5 155.8 83% 66–83 ✓
Valparaiso @ Northern Iowa +6.9 136.6 77% 66–77 ✓
Belmont @ Evansville -12.0 147.9 14% 73–64 ✓
Illinois State @ Bradley +13.5 135.5 87% 75–79 ✓
California Baptist @ UT Arlington -3.7 134.5 32% 74–66 ✓
Butler @ Providence +7.9 141.5 82% 58–79 ✓
Mississippi State @ Alabama +12.6 139.6 88% 63–66 ✓
Texas A&M @ Auburn +6.4 136.9 73% 79–63 ✗
Tulane @ Wichita State +0.3 146.5 46% 95–90 ✗
Louisville @ Boston College +9.2 140.3 81% 65–75 ✓
St. John's @ Creighton +9.4 153.0 81% 76–104 ✓
Indiana @ Minnesota -10.2 137.1 17% 61–57 ✓
Chicago State @ Stanford +12.7 138.6 86% 65–72 ✓
Utah State @ San Diego State +4.3 149.4 73% 75–85 ✓
St. Francis Brooklyn @ Wagner +9.7 130.3 73% 65–56 ✗
Georgia State @ App State +4.5 132.2 66% 59–71 ✓
Eastern Kentucky @ Bellarmine -0.9 136.4 41% 71–72 ✗

Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.