Betting Lines
| Spread | WAG -10.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 122.5 Under |
| Money | WAG -700 SFBK +450 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | WAG win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SFBK +9 | 121 | Lost |
| Massey | WAG -11.8 (-20.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 123.4 (-2.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 89% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 93% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | WAG -8.7 (-17.7) | 130.7 (-9.7) | 81% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | WAG -11.0 (-20.0) | 125.1 (-4.1) | 76% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | WAG -9.5 (-18.5) | 129.6 (-8.6) | 75% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | WAG -9.7 (-18.7) | 130.3 (-9.3) | 73% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 9, 2023 | SFBK 64 – 62 WAG |
| Jan 30, 2022 | WAG 72 – 69 SFBK |
| Jan 15, 2022 | WAG 81 – 76 SFBK |
| Feb 5, 2021 | WAG 84 – 81 SFBK |
| Feb 4, 2021 | WAG 74 – 67 SFBK |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | WAG | SFBK |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 15-13 | 14-16 |
| Conference | 8-8 | 7-9 |
| Home | 8-4 | 10-5 |
| Away | 7-9 | 4-11 |
| Neutral | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 61.3 | 63.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 62.3 | 68.3 |
| Massey | -6.3 (#285) | -14.6 (#353) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.89 (#268) | -2.34 (#346) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.39 (#281) | -3.20 (#351) |
| RPI | 0.453 (#264) | 0.399 (#337) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | WAG | SFBK |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 39.4% | 40.4% |
| 3PT% | 31.0% | 35.7% |
| REB / G | 34.9 | 31.7 |
| OREB / G | 12.4 | 10.3 |
| AST / TO | 0.99 | 0.75 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 45.2% | 45.9% |
| TOV% | 18.8% | 21.6% |
| ORB% | 33.2% | 29.8% |
| FT Rate | 16.6% | 23.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.6% | 51.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 21.7% | 19.8% |
| DRB% | 74.8% | 67.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 39.6% | 21.4% |
Game Analysis
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