Betting Lines
| Spread | MD -4.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 124.5 Over |
| Money | MD -213 WIS +163 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MD win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MD +18 | 128 | Won |
| Massey | MD -6.2 (+11.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 124.2 (+3.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 58% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 62% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MD -4.1 (+13.9) | 129.6 (-1.6) | 63% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MD -5.3 (+12.7) | 128.6 (-0.6) | 65% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MD -4.7 (+13.3) | 128.3 (-0.3) | 66% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | MD -5.3 (+12.7) | 129.1 (-1.1) | 66% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 5, 2026 | WIS 78 – 45 MD |
| Jan 30, 2025 | MD 76 – 68 WIS |
| Mar 14, 2024 | WIS 87 – 56 MD |
| Feb 21, 2024 | WIS 74 – 70 MD |
| Dec 7, 2022 | WIS 64 – 59 MD |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MD | WIS |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 22-13 | 20-15 |
| Conference | 11-9 | 9-11 |
| Home | 16-1 | 11-6 |
| Away | 2-9 | 6-6 |
| Neutral | 4-3 | 3-3 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 69.7 | 65.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 63.5 | 63.6 |
| Massey | 10.2 (#42) | 7.5 (#74) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.74 (#50) | 2.03 (#38) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.24 (#48) | 2.44 (#39) |
| RPI | 0.589 (#37) | 0.587 (#42) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MD | WIS |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.4% | 42.4% |
| 3PT% | 30.1% | 36.2% |
| REB / G | 35.4 | 31.8 |
| OREB / G | 10.4 | 7.6 |
| AST / TO | 0.89 | 1.35 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.2% | 49.9% |
| TOV% | 17.8% | 13.8% |
| ORB% | 31.0% | 21.6% |
| FT Rate | 24.4% | 16.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 46.0% | 49.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.8% | 19.0% |
| DRB% | 70.1% | 75.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 20.2% | 18.6% |
Game Analysis
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