Betting Lines
| Spread | WIS -1.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 131.5 Under |
| Money | WIS -150 MD +115 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | WIS win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | WIS +5 | 123 | Won |
| Massey | MD -3.0 (+8.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 126.7 (-3.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 19% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 5% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MD -1.7 (+6.7) | 131.7 (-8.7) | 58% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MD -1.5 (+6.5) | 129.5 (-6.5) | 57% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MD -1.3 (+6.3) | 132.1 (-9.1) | 38% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | MD -2.2 (+7.2) | 131.2 (-8.2) | 57% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 5, 2026 | WIS 78 – 45 MD |
| Jan 30, 2025 | MD 76 – 68 WIS |
| Mar 14, 2024 | WIS 87 – 56 MD |
| Feb 21, 2024 | WIS 74 – 70 MD |
| Jan 26, 2023 | MD 73 – 55 WIS |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | WIS | MD |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 20-15 | 22-13 |
| Conference | 9-11 | 11-9 |
| Home | 11-6 | 16-1 |
| Away | 6-6 | 2-9 |
| Neutral | 3-3 | 4-3 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 5-0 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 65.3 | 69.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 63.6 | 63.5 |
| Massey | 6.3 (#73) | 14.6 (#13) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.60 (#60) | 4.18 (#2) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.36 (#55) | 6.48 (#2) |
| RPI | 0.604 (#48) | 0.668 (#8) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | WIS | MD |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 39.9% | 49.3% |
| 3PT% | 37.4% | 32.8% |
| REB / G | 34.4 | 38.0 |
| OREB / G | 8.8 | 11.5 |
| AST / TO | 1.14 | 1.05 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 47.6% | 55.6% |
| TOV% | 15.7% | 16.7% |
| ORB% | 24.3% | 35.7% |
| FT Rate | 20.5% | 27.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 46.2% | 43.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.1% | 20.0% |
| DRB% | 74.8% | 70.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 20.0% | 17.8% |
Game Analysis
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