Betting Lines
| Spread | MD -5.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 151.5 Under |
| Money | MD -240 WIS +200 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MD win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MD +8 | 144 | Won |
| Massey | MD -5.3 (+2.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 154.1 (-10.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 54% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 55% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MD -4.8 (+3.2) | 151.0 (-7.0) | 72% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MD -5.5 (+2.5) | 148.1 (-4.1) | 74% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MD -4.9 (+3.1) | 151.3 (-7.3) | 70% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | MD -5.4 (+2.6) | 151.4 (-7.4) | 73% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 5, 2026 | WIS 78 – 45 MD |
| Mar 14, 2024 | WIS 87 – 56 MD |
| Feb 21, 2024 | WIS 74 – 70 MD |
| Jan 26, 2023 | MD 73 – 55 WIS |
| Dec 7, 2022 | WIS 64 – 59 MD |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MD | WIS |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 27-9 | 27-10 |
| Conference | 14-6 | 13-7 |
| Home | 17-2 | 14-3 |
| Away | 5-5 | 6-5 |
| Neutral | 5-2 | 7-2 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 81.1 | 80.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 67.2 | 70.9 |
| Massey | 19.2 (#13) | 17.1 (#20) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.54 (#30) | 2.98 (#22) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 3.63 (#26) | 4.12 (#16) |
| RPI | 0.587 (#45) | 0.627 (#20) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MD | WIS |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 48.8% | 47.2% |
| 3PT% | 36.5% | 36.2% |
| REB / G | 37.0 | 35.6 |
| OREB / G | 11.1 | 8.9 |
| AST / TO | 1.49 | 1.47 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 55.3% | 55.7% |
| TOV% | 14.7% | 14.9% |
| ORB% | 32.7% | 28.3% |
| FT Rate | 22.8% | 30.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.5% | 47.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 21.4% | 15.7% |
| DRB% | 73.5% | 72.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 18.4% | 21.2% |
Game Analysis
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