Betting Lines
| Spread | SDSU -7.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 145.5 Over |
| Money | SDSU -333 USU +240 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | SDSU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SDSU +10 | 160 | Won |
| Massey | SDSU -4.5 (+5.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 150.9 (+9.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 67% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 65% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SDSU -4.4 (+5.6) | 148.9 (+11.1) | 73% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SDSU -5.1 (+4.9) | 144.5 (+15.5) | 77% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SDSU -4.1 (+5.9) | 148.1 (+11.9) | 71% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | SDSU -4.3 (+5.7) | 149.4 (+10.6) | 73% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 14, 2026 | USU 73 – 62 SDSU |
| Feb 26, 2026 | SDSU 89 – 72 USU |
| Jan 31, 2026 | USU 71 – 66 SDSU |
| Feb 23, 2025 | USU 79 – 71 SDSU |
| Dec 28, 2024 | USU 67 – 66 SDSU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | SDSU | USU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 32-7 | 26-9 |
| Conference | 15-3 | 13-5 |
| Home | 15-1 | 14-2 |
| Away | 8-2 | 7-4 |
| Neutral | 9-4 | 5-3 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 70.5 | 77.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 63.6 | 69.9 |
| Massey | 11.7 (#28) | 10.7 (#37) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.21 (#27) | 2.13 (#32) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.68 (#31) | 2.79 (#28) |
| RPI | 0.624 (#16) | 0.621 (#18) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | SDSU | USU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.0% | 48.1% |
| 3PT% | 34.2% | 41.5% |
| REB / G | 35.4 | 35.9 |
| OREB / G | 10.0 | 8.3 |
| AST / TO | 1.03 | 1.39 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.1% | 56.6% |
| TOV% | 18.1% | 17.6% |
| ORB% | 30.0% | 26.5% |
| FT Rate | 27.0% | 27.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.3% | 48.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.9% | 15.9% |
| DRB% | 76.2% | 76.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.0% | 21.0% |
Game Analysis
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