Betting Lines
| Spread | WIN -4.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 145.5 Under |
| Money | WIN -188 CHSO +188 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | WIN win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | WIN +12 | 140 | Won |
| Massey | WIN -2.4 (+9.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 154.5 (-14.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 73% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 72% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | WIN -0.2 (+11.8) | 148.3 (-8.3) | 59% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | WIN -3.5 (+8.5) | 146.7 (-6.7) | 71% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | WIN -1.3 (+10.7) | 149.9 (-9.9) | 59% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | WIN -0.7 (+11.3) | 149.9 (-9.9) | 58% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 6, 2026 | WIN 86 – 81 CHSO |
| Feb 27, 2026 | CHSO 86 – 84 WIN |
| Jan 7, 2026 | WIN 81 – 77 CHSO |
| Feb 6, 2025 | WIN 83 – 65 CHSO |
| Jan 15, 2025 | WIN 102 – 97 CHSO |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | WIN | CHSO |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 15-17 | 10-21 |
| Conference | 10-8 | 5-13 |
| Home | 10-4 | 6-8 |
| Away | 4-11 | 3-12 |
| Neutral | 1-2 | 1-1 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 72.8 | 70.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 75.8 | 75.4 |
| Massey | -6.4 (#288) | -5.3 (#256) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.13 (#285) | -1.53 (#312) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.48 (#285) | -1.70 (#296) |
| RPI | 0.442 (#284) | 0.420 (#312) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | WIN | CHSO |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.1% | 44.3% |
| 3PT% | 35.8% | 34.2% |
| REB / G | 29.9 | 34.1 |
| OREB / G | 8.3 | 12.1 |
| AST / TO | 0.77 | 0.92 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 53.2% | 51.2% |
| TOV% | 22.0% | 18.6% |
| ORB% | 26.8% | 34.2% |
| FT Rate | 30.1% | 21.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 54.8% | 54.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.2% | 16.9% |
| DRB% | 63.7% | 67.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 19.3% | 26.6% |
Game Analysis
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