Betting Lines
| Spread | WIN -6.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 164.5 Over |
| Money | WIN -285 CHSO +230 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | WIN win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | WIN +5 | 167 | Won |
| Massey | WIN -6.1 (-1.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 167.1 (-0.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 82% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 85% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | WIN -6.5 (-1.5) | 162.5 (+4.5) | 75% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | WIN -7.1 (-2.1) | 162.7 (+4.3) | 78% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | WIN -5.9 (-0.9) | 159.4 (+7.6) | 74% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | WIN -5.7 (-0.7) | 157.5 (+9.5) | 71% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 27, 2026 | CHSO 86 – 84 WIN |
| Jan 7, 2026 | WIN 81 – 77 CHSO |
| Feb 6, 2025 | WIN 83 – 65 CHSO |
| Jan 15, 2025 | WIN 102 – 97 CHSO |
| Feb 7, 2024 | WIN 67 – 46 CHSO |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | WIN | CHSO |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 23-11 | 15-17 |
| Conference | 13-3 | 6-10 |
| Home | 13-1 | 10-4 |
| Away | 7-9 | 5-11 |
| Neutral | 3-1 | 0-2 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 81.5 | 80.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 77.7 | 81.0 |
| Massey | 1.7 (#137) | -4.4 (#235) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.26 (#140) | -1.26 (#279) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.22 (#148) | -1.53 (#281) |
| RPI | 0.565 (#63) | 0.447 (#291) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | WIN | CHSO |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.8% | 45.4% |
| 3PT% | 34.0% | 35.8% |
| REB / G | 39.2 | 40.4 |
| OREB / G | 13.5 | 11.5 |
| AST / TO | 1.32 | 1.11 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.4% | 54.3% |
| TOV% | 14.8% | 19.0% |
| ORB% | 34.5% | 30.0% |
| FT Rate | 31.9% | 19.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.4% | 47.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.1% | 12.9% |
| DRB% | 71.4% | 69.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 28.3% | 30.6% |
Game Analysis
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