Betting Lines
| Spread | WIN -9.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 146.5 Under |
| Money | WIN -450 CHSO +400 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | WIN win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | WIN +21 | 113 | Won |
| Massey | WIN -14.0 (+7.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 144.4 (-31.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 89% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 94% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | WIN -10.9 (+10.1) | 146.4 (-33.4) | 85% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | WIN -10.3 (+10.7) | 144.9 (-31.9) | 86% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | WIN -10.6 (+10.4) | 143.7 (-30.7) | 86% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | WIN -10.7 (+10.3) | 145.9 (-32.9) | 85% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 6, 2026 | WIN 86 – 81 CHSO |
| Feb 27, 2026 | CHSO 86 – 84 WIN |
| Jan 7, 2026 | WIN 81 – 77 CHSO |
| Feb 6, 2025 | WIN 83 – 65 CHSO |
| Jan 15, 2025 | WIN 102 – 97 CHSO |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | WIN | CHSO |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 17-15 | 10-20 |
| Conference | 8-8 | 6-10 |
| Home | 9-5 | 7-7 |
| Away | 6-9 | 3-12 |
| Neutral | 2-1 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L3 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 75.0 | 64.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 73.5 | 74.5 |
| Massey | 1.1 (#149) | -9.4 (#316) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.02 (#174) | -1.45 (#303) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.10 (#164) | -1.89 (#308) |
| RPI | 0.502 (#169) | 0.446 (#275) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | WIN | CHSO |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.2% | 41.7% |
| 3PT% | 35.2% | 32.7% |
| REB / G | 34.2 | 32.0 |
| OREB / G | 10.0 | 8.8 |
| AST / TO | 0.82 | 0.75 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.9% | 47.3% |
| TOV% | 18.7% | 18.3% |
| ORB% | 29.9% | 26.0% |
| FT Rate | 36.0% | 25.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.7% | 52.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.9% | 13.7% |
| DRB% | 66.9% | 68.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 26.1% | 24.2% |
Game Analysis
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