Betting Lines
| Spread | WIN -10.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 159.5 Over |
| Money | WIN -700 CHSO +450 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | WIN win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | WIN +5 | 199 | Won |
| Massey | WIN -10.0 (-5.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 160.4 (+38.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 92% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 94% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | WIN -8.9 (-3.9) | 156.3 (+42.7) | 80% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | WIN -8.1 (-3.1) | 155.5 (+43.5) | 83% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | WIN -7.9 (-2.9) | 154.6 (+44.4) | 81% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | WIN -8.0 (-3.0) | 156.5 (+42.5) | 81% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 6, 2026 | WIN 86 – 81 CHSO |
| Feb 27, 2026 | CHSO 86 – 84 WIN |
| Jan 7, 2026 | WIN 81 – 77 CHSO |
| Feb 6, 2025 | WIN 83 – 65 CHSO |
| Feb 7, 2024 | WIN 67 – 46 CHSO |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | WIN | CHSO |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 23-11 | 10-22 |
| Conference | 11-5 | 6-10 |
| Home | 16-2 | 7-5 |
| Away | 5-8 | 3-14 |
| Neutral | 2-1 | 0-3 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L5 |
| Avg Pts For | 82.3 | 70.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 79.8 | 78.8 |
| Massey | -1.2 (#178) | -7.4 (#287) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.06 (#169) | -1.64 (#310) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.03 (#165) | -2.01 (#308) |
| RPI | 0.511 (#155) | 0.433 (#290) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | WIN | CHSO |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.1% | 42.9% |
| 3PT% | 29.3% | 32.2% |
| REB / G | 37.2 | 35.5 |
| OREB / G | 12.5 | 11.1 |
| AST / TO | 0.78 | 0.88 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.8% | 49.6% |
| TOV% | 17.7% | 19.7% |
| ORB% | 32.9% | 30.4% |
| FT Rate | 34.5% | 25.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.5% | 54.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.8% | 13.0% |
| DRB% | 66.3% | 72.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 27.3% | 22.5% |
Game Analysis
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