Betting Lines
| Spread | NAVY -3.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 135.5 Under |
| Money | BUCK +150 NAVY -150 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | BUCK win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | NAVY +17 | 109 | Lost |
| Massey | NAVY -0.2 (-16.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 140.3 (-31.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 36% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 36% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | NAVY -0.5 (-16.5) | 136.0 (-27.0) | 48% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | NAVY -1.7 (-15.3) | 132.9 (-23.9) | 40% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | NAVY -0.4 (-16.6) | 138.8 (-29.8) | 48% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | NAVY -0.5 (-16.5) | 137.8 (-28.8) | 50% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 6, 2026 | NAVY 74 – 69 BUCK |
| Feb 9, 2026 | NAVY 76 – 60 BUCK |
| Jan 8, 2026 | NAVY 76 – 55 BUCK |
| Mar 9, 2025 | NAVY 83 – 77 BUCK |
| Feb 1, 2025 | BUCK 85 – 75 NAVY |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | BUCK | NAVY |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 12-20 | 18-13 |
| Conference | 5-13 | 11-7 |
| Home | 7-7 | 9-6 |
| Away | 3-13 | 9-7 |
| Neutral | 2-0 | 0-0 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 66.1 | 68.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 69.0 | 65.3 |
| Massey | -6.2 (#281) | -2.4 (#221) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.84 (#330) | -0.64 (#240) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -2.19 (#324) | -0.91 (#242) |
| RPI | 0.403 (#336) | 0.471 (#235) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | BUCK | NAVY |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.3% | 45.5% |
| 3PT% | 32.7% | 39.4% |
| REB / G | 34.7 | 33.5 |
| OREB / G | 8.2 | 9.9 |
| AST / TO | 0.98 | 1.19 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.2% | 53.2% |
| TOV% | 20.7% | 18.4% |
| ORB% | 26.3% | 29.9% |
| FT Rate | 20.7% | 15.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.1% | 53.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.5% | 18.4% |
| DRB% | 74.7% | 71.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 18.0% | 19.8% |
Game Analysis
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