Betting Lines
| Spread | UNCG -16.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 133.5 Under |
| Money | UNCG -1600 VMI +1100 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UNCG win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UNCG +12 | 112 | Won |
| Massey | UNCG -17.3 (-5.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 134.0 (-22.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 98% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 99% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UNCG -12.8 (-0.8) | 132.5 (-20.5) | 88% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UNCG -11.9 (+0.1) | 134.2 (-22.2) | 85% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UNCG -13.1 (-1.1) | 134.5 (-22.5) | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UNCG -13.5 (-1.5) | 134.2 (-22.2) | 87% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 7, 2026 | UNCG 84 – 70 VMI |
| Feb 12, 2026 | UNCG 92 – 71 VMI |
| Jan 21, 2026 | UNCG 85 – 78 VMI |
| Mar 8, 2025 | VMI 64 – 57 UNCG |
| Feb 13, 2025 | UNCG 80 – 54 VMI |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UNCG | VMI |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 20-12 | 7-25 |
| Conference | 14-4 | 2-16 |
| Home | 11-3 | 6-8 |
| Away | 8-6 | 1-14 |
| Neutral | 1-3 | 0-3 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 0-5 |
| Streak | L2 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 69.8 | 65.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 65.2 | 78.4 |
| Massey | 2.3 (#131) | -11.4 (#342) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.39 (#140) | -2.71 (#353) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.53 (#134) | -3.29 (#352) |
| RPI | 0.534 (#112) | 0.379 (#350) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UNCG | VMI |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 41.7% | 41.5% |
| 3PT% | 34.2% | 37.0% |
| REB / G | 35.3 | 33.6 |
| OREB / G | 9.4 | 10.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.09 | 0.78 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 48.4% | 49.4% |
| TOV% | 18.5% | 20.9% |
| ORB% | 27.1% | 28.8% |
| FT Rate | 25.0% | 15.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.4% | 55.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.0% | 15.6% |
| DRB% | 73.4% | 71.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 21.7% | 22.2% |
Game Analysis
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