Betting Lines
| Spread | UMBC -5.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 146.5 Under |
| Money | NJIT +220 UMBC -225 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | NJIT win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | NJIT +4 | 134 | Won |
| Massey | UMBC -3.4 (+7.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 148.7 (-14.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 17% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 18% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UMBC -3.7 (+7.7) | 150.7 (-16.7) | 38% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UMBC -3.6 (+7.6) | 146.5 (-12.5) | 36% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UMBC -4.3 (+8.3) | 149.2 (-15.2) | 30% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | UMBC -3.9 (+7.9) | 151.3 (-17.3) | 35% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 3, 2026 | UMBC 91 – 52 NJIT |
| Jan 22, 2026 | UMBC 87 – 74 NJIT |
| Feb 22, 2025 | UMBC 95 – 91 NJIT |
| Jan 10, 2025 | UMBC 87 – 64 NJIT |
| Mar 1, 2024 | UMBC 79 – 60 NJIT |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | NJIT | UMBC |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 7-23 | 18-14 |
| Conference | 4-12 | 8-8 |
| Home | 5-8 | 13-4 |
| Away | 2-15 | 5-10 |
| Neutral | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L6 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 66.5 | 73.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 73.5 | 73.0 |
| Massey | -8.4 (#314) | -1.5 (#203) |
| Bradley-Terry | -2.06 (#335) | 0.15 (#158) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -2.22 (#325) | 0.02 (#174) |
| RPI | 0.404 (#334) | 0.495 (#186) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | NJIT | UMBC |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.0% | 45.9% |
| 3PT% | 34.7% | 36.5% |
| REB / G | 32.6 | 34.3 |
| OREB / G | 8.4 | 9.7 |
| AST / TO | 1.16 | 1.54 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 48.1% | 53.3% |
| TOV% | 16.1% | 14.7% |
| ORB% | 23.6% | 27.9% |
| FT Rate | 22.5% | 20.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.8% | 54.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.3% | 17.2% |
| DRB% | 69.4% | 74.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 19.5% | 18.1% |
Game Analysis
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