Betting Lines
| Spread | UMBC -6.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 143.5 Over |
| Money | UMBC -298 NJIT +240 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UMBC win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UMBC +13 | 161 | Won |
| Massey | UMBC -8.8 (+4.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 143.4 (+17.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 64% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 64% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UMBC -6.0 (+7.0) | 141.8 (+19.2) | 74% ✓ |
| Model 4 ML ★ | UMBC -5.8 (+7.2) | 144.3 (+16.7) | 73% ✓ |
| Model 3 ML | UMBC -6.9 (+6.1) | 139.5 (+21.5) | 75% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UMBC -5.9 (+7.1) | 141.2 (+19.8) | 71% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 3, 2026 | UMBC 91 – 52 NJIT |
| Feb 22, 2025 | UMBC 95 – 91 NJIT |
| Jan 10, 2025 | UMBC 87 – 64 NJIT |
| Mar 1, 2024 | UMBC 79 – 60 NJIT |
| Jan 28, 2024 | NJIT 75 – 74 UMBC |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UMBC | NJIT |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 24-9 | 16-17 |
| Conference | 14-2 | 10-6 |
| Home | 15-2 | 8-6 |
| Away | 9-6 | 8-11 |
| Neutral | 0-1 | 0-0 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 75.7 | 66.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 68.5 | 73.7 |
| Massey | -7.2 (#272) | -12.7 (#336) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.44 (#298) | -1.46 (#301) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.98 (#296) | -1.95 (#294) |
| RPI | 0.421 (#314) | 0.433 (#292) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UMBC | NJIT |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.8% | 38.7% |
| 3PT% | 35.9% | 31.4% |
| REB / G | 33.0 | 33.5 |
| OREB / G | 7.8 | 9.2 |
| AST / TO | 1.20 | 0.82 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 53.9% | 45.5% |
| TOV% | 16.4% | 18.4% |
| ORB% | 24.2% | 25.2% |
| FT Rate | 21.6% | 25.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.3% | 50.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 14.9% | 15.9% |
| DRB% | 72.4% | 66.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 17.0% | 27.2% |
Game Analysis
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