Betting Lines
| Spread | UMBC -4.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 143.5 Under |
| Money | NJIT +170 UMBC -205 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | NJIT win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UMBC +39 | 143 | Lost |
| Massey | UMBC -4.9 (-34.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 140.8 (+2.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 45% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 37% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UMBC -4.0 (-35.0) | 135.4 (+7.6) | 31% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UMBC -3.8 (-35.2) | 139.3 (+3.7) | 32% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UMBC -3.8 (-35.2) | 137.5 (+5.5) | 35% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UMBC -4.1 (-34.9) | 136.5 (+6.5) | 26% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 22, 2026 | UMBC 87 – 74 NJIT |
| Feb 22, 2025 | UMBC 95 – 91 NJIT |
| Jan 10, 2025 | UMBC 87 – 64 NJIT |
| Mar 1, 2024 | UMBC 79 – 60 NJIT |
| Jan 28, 2024 | NJIT 75 – 74 UMBC |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | NJIT | UMBC |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 16-17 | 24-9 |
| Conference | 10-6 | 14-2 |
| Home | 8-6 | 15-2 |
| Away | 8-11 | 9-6 |
| Neutral | 0-0 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 5-0 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 66.2 | 75.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 73.7 | 68.5 |
| Massey | -11.6 (#326) | -3.7 (#226) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.29 (#282) | -0.57 (#229) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.88 (#300) | -0.77 (#226) |
| RPI | 0.480 (#229) | 0.495 (#199) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | NJIT | UMBC |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 40.9% | 46.5% |
| 3PT% | 31.1% | 34.5% |
| REB / G | 34.1 | 34.3 |
| OREB / G | 9.4 | 7.7 |
| AST / TO | 0.95 | 1.26 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 47.1% | 53.1% |
| TOV% | 16.6% | 14.2% |
| ORB% | 26.2% | 24.1% |
| FT Rate | 24.2% | 25.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.8% | 49.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.9% | 14.9% |
| DRB% | 67.8% | 74.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 26.9% | 17.4% |
Game Analysis
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