Betting Lines
| Spread | APP -5.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 128.5 Over |
| Money | APP -250 GAST +188 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | APP win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | APP +12 | 130 | Won |
| Massey | APP -6.2 (+5.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 123.6 (+6.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 80% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 85% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | APP -4.4 (+7.6) | 131.1 (-1.1) | 69% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | APP -4.3 (+7.7) | 131.7 (-1.7) | 68% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | APP -4.1 (+7.9) | 131.5 (-1.5) | 70% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | APP -4.5 (+7.5) | 132.2 (-2.2) | 66% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 9, 2026 | APP 52 – 50 GAST |
| Dec 20, 2025 | GAST 70 – 63 APP |
| Feb 15, 2025 | GAST 70 – 65 APP |
| Feb 1, 2025 | APP 80 – 76 GAST |
| Feb 2, 2024 | APP 81 – 71 GAST |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | APP | GAST |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 16-16 | 10-21 |
| Conference | 9-9 | 3-15 |
| Home | 10-7 | 10-9 |
| Away | 6-7 | 0-11 |
| Neutral | 0-2 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L2 | L8 |
| Avg Pts For | 65.6 | 65.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 66.1 | 70.9 |
| Massey | -0.5 (#180) | -3.1 (#230) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.20 (#192) | -0.96 (#274) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.05 (#181) | -1.04 (#261) |
| RPI | 0.507 (#160) | 0.439 (#291) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | APP | GAST |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.0% | 40.5% |
| 3PT% | 32.7% | 29.2% |
| REB / G | 34.2 | 33.2 |
| OREB / G | 8.6 | 10.2 |
| AST / TO | 1.01 | 0.73 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 48.5% | 45.2% |
| TOV% | 16.8% | 20.1% |
| ORB% | 24.0% | 30.6% |
| FT Rate | 19.4% | 24.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.5% | 47.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.1% | 18.5% |
| DRB% | 71.0% | 69.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 18.4% | 22.5% |
Game Analysis
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