Betting Lines
| Spread | GWEB -6.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 131.5 Over |
| Money | GWEB -275 UPST +275 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | GWEB win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | GWEB +12 | 144 | Won |
| Massey | GWEB -9.9 (+2.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 127.4 (+16.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 62% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 71% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | GWEB -6.4 (+5.6) | 129.6 (+14.4) | 74% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | GWEB -6.3 (+5.7) | 127.7 (+16.3) | 76% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | GWEB -6.0 (+6.0) | 129.9 (+14.1) | 73% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | GWEB -5.7 (+6.3) | 130.8 (+13.2) | 73% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 5, 2026 | GWEB 65 – 64 UPST |
| Feb 28, 2026 | UPST 71 – 61 GWEB |
| Jan 24, 2026 | GWEB 67 – 65 UPST |
| Mar 6, 2025 | GWEB 83 – 63 UPST |
| Feb 15, 2025 | GWEB 96 – 87 UPST |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | GWEB | UPST |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 15-16 | 16-16 |
| Conference | 10-8 | 10-8 |
| Home | 8-5 | 11-2 |
| Away | 6-10 | 4-12 |
| Neutral | 1-1 | 1-2 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L5 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 67.4 | 67.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 66.7 | 70.8 |
| Massey | -0.7 (#189) | -7.1 (#295) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.75 (#254) | -0.65 (#241) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.89 (#238) | -1.05 (#264) |
| RPI | 0.461 (#254) | 0.464 (#247) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | GWEB | UPST |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.8% | 44.9% |
| 3PT% | 32.3% | 33.6% |
| REB / G | 33.7 | 30.1 |
| OREB / G | 9.7 | 8.1 |
| AST / TO | 0.84 | 0.75 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.4% | 50.3% |
| TOV% | 20.0% | 20.4% |
| ORB% | 28.4% | 24.6% |
| FT Rate | 19.5% | 21.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.2% | 48.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.3% | 20.9% |
| DRB% | 73.7% | 63.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 30.0% | 32.6% |
Game Analysis
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