Betting Lines
| Spread | LAF -5.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 121.5 Under |
| Money | LAF -225 L-MD +210 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | LAF win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | LAF +16 | 108 | Won |
| Massey | LAF -11.3 (+4.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 119.0 (-11.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 73% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 82% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | LAF -7.9 (+8.1) | 124.9 (-16.9) | 78% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | LAF -7.2 (+8.8) | 123.2 (-15.2) | 74% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | LAF -7.7 (+8.3) | 126.3 (-18.3) | 76% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | LAF -8.1 (+7.9) | 124.5 (-16.5) | 74% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 12, 2026 | L-MD 68 – 54 LAF |
| Jan 3, 2026 | LAF 79 – 64 L-MD |
| Feb 6, 2025 | L-MD 71 – 58 LAF |
| Jan 23, 2025 | LAF 80 – 59 L-MD |
| Feb 15, 2024 | L-MD 79 – 64 LAF |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | LAF | L-MD |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 11-23 | 13-20 |
| Conference | 7-11 | 7-11 |
| Home | 5-7 | 9-6 |
| Away | 5-16 | 3-13 |
| Neutral | 1-0 | 1-1 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 62.4 | 65.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 65.6 | 71.8 |
| Massey | -3.6 (#236) | -11.4 (#341) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.34 (#294) | -1.70 (#323) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.48 (#286) | -2.25 (#328) |
| RPI | 0.456 (#261) | 0.409 (#328) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | LAF | L-MD |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 40.5% | 43.5% |
| 3PT% | 34.0% | 34.2% |
| REB / G | 30.2 | 29.3 |
| OREB / G | 7.7 | 8.9 |
| AST / TO | 1.36 | 0.80 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.2% | 50.2% |
| TOV% | 17.6% | 23.0% |
| ORB% | 22.3% | 26.9% |
| FT Rate | 14.3% | 16.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.7% | 56.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.8% | 21.4% |
| DRB% | 71.6% | 69.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 21.3% | 20.9% |
Game Analysis
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