Betting Lines
| Spread | PFW -18.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 140.5 Over |
| Money | PFW -2000 IUIN +1200 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | PFW win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | PFW +6 | 156 | Won |
| Massey | PFW -21.3 (-15.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 138.3 (+17.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 99% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 99% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | PFW -15.9 (-9.9) | 142.6 (+13.4) | 90% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | PFW -16.2 (-10.2) | 143.2 (+12.8) | 90% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | PFW -14.4 (-8.4) | 142.9 (+13.1) | 90% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | PFW -15.7 (-9.7) | 143.8 (+12.2) | 90% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 28, 2026 | PFW 87 – 81 IUIN |
| Feb 15, 2026 | PFW 83 – 78 IUIN |
| Jan 25, 2025 | PFW 91 – 80 IUIN |
| Dec 12, 2024 | PFW 78 – 76 IUIN |
| Feb 10, 2024 | PFW 92 – 65 IUIN |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | PFW | IUIN |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 17-15 | 5-27 |
| Conference | 9-11 | 2-18 |
| Home | 9-6 | 4-9 |
| Away | 7-8 | 0-15 |
| Neutral | 1-1 | 1-3 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 0-5 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 71.6 | 65.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 72.1 | 78.6 |
| Massey | -0.6 (#184) | -18.3 (#361) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.06 (#175) | -3.66 (#360) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.02 (#178) | -4.21 (#359) |
| RPI | 0.500 (#174) | 0.343 (#363) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | PFW | IUIN |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.1% | 43.4% |
| 3PT% | 33.3% | 28.0% |
| REB / G | 36.0 | 30.3 |
| OREB / G | 10.3 | 8.8 |
| AST / TO | 0.91 | 0.63 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.0% | 47.5% |
| TOV% | 19.2% | 24.0% |
| ORB% | 28.1% | 27.2% |
| FT Rate | 20.7% | 21.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.6% | 56.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.0% | 18.5% |
| DRB% | 75.5% | 69.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 15.3% | 26.2% |
Game Analysis
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