Betting Lines
| Spread | UML -7.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 140.5 Over |
| Money | ME +300 UML -300 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ME win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ME +5 | 145 | Won |
| Massey | UML -4.1 (+9.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 146.5 (-1.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 18% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 14% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UML -3.9 (+8.9) | 144.8 (+0.2) | 39% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UML -4.1 (+9.1) | 143.1 (+1.9) | 38% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UML -4.4 (+9.4) | 145.9 (-0.9) | 31% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | UML -4.3 (+9.3) | 146.8 (-1.8) | 35% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 3, 2026 | UML 67 – 56 ME |
| Jan 31, 2026 | UML 91 – 77 ME |
| Mar 8, 2025 | ME 72 – 64 UML |
| Mar 4, 2025 | ME 71 – 70 UML |
| Jan 23, 2025 | ME 86 – 85 UML |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ME | UML |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 13-17 | 26-8 |
| Conference | 7-9 | 11-5 |
| Home | 8-4 | 17-0 |
| Away | 5-12 | 9-8 |
| Neutral | 0-1 | 0-0 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 66.5 | 76.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 70.7 | 67.1 |
| Massey | -5.8 (#271) | 1.8 (#139) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.53 (#311) | 0.63 (#117) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.77 (#304) | 0.72 (#122) |
| RPI | 0.435 (#298) | 0.533 (#114) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ME | UML |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.4% | 48.0% |
| 3PT% | 36.5% | 36.8% |
| REB / G | 30.0 | 39.0 |
| OREB / G | 7.8 | 12.3 |
| AST / TO | 1.04 | 0.97 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.1% | 53.8% |
| TOV% | 18.7% | 21.9% |
| ORB% | 23.2% | 36.5% |
| FT Rate | 14.6% | 21.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 54.7% | 45.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.2% | 19.4% |
| DRB% | 70.4% | 72.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 21.1% | 26.2% |
Game Analysis
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