Betting Lines
| Spread | MER -4.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 131.5 Over |
| Money | MER -188 ETSU +200 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MER win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MER +4 | 138 | Won |
| Massey | MER -3.6 (+0.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 131.7 (+6.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 80% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 80% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MER -2.8 (+1.2) | 133.1 (+4.9) | 59% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MER -2.7 (+1.3) | 132.0 (+6.0) | 58% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MER -2.1 (+1.9) | 135.1 (+2.9) | 61% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | MER -2.3 (+1.7) | 134.1 (+3.9) | 61% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 28, 2026 | MER 82 – 76 ETSU |
| Jan 3, 2026 | ETSU 77 – 71 MER |
| Feb 26, 2025 | ETSU 59 – 58 MER |
| Jan 9, 2025 | ETSU 70 – 68 MER |
| Feb 1, 2024 | ETSU 54 – 49 MER |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MER | ETSU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 14-19 | 12-20 |
| Conference | 6-12 | 8-10 |
| Home | 7-7 | 7-9 |
| Away | 4-10 | 4-9 |
| Neutral | 3-2 | 1-2 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 66.1 | 68.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 67.3 | 69.5 |
| Massey | -4.0 (#238) | -4.1 (#241) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.88 (#267) | -1.63 (#316) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.00 (#254) | -1.68 (#294) |
| RPI | 0.453 (#267) | 0.417 (#318) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MER | ETSU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.3% | 45.4% |
| 3PT% | 34.3% | 30.9% |
| REB / G | 33.5 | 35.3 |
| OREB / G | 9.7 | 10.3 |
| AST / TO | 1.05 | 0.89 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.2% | 50.7% |
| TOV% | 18.2% | 20.3% |
| ORB% | 29.4% | 30.4% |
| FT Rate | 20.2% | 19.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.4% | 50.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.8% | 18.3% |
| DRB% | 70.0% | 72.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 25.4% | 18.8% |
Game Analysis
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