Betting Lines
| Spread | STAN -18.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 135.5 Over |
| Money | STAN -4000 CHST +1100 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | STAN win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | STAN +7 | 137 | Won |
| Massey | STAN -14.7 (-7.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 135.1 (+1.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 85% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 91% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | STAN -12.3 (-5.3) | 136.3 (+0.7) | 85% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | STAN -15.2 (-8.2) | 136.9 (+0.1) | 88% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | STAN -12.3 (-5.3) | 137.7 (-0.7) | 86% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | STAN -12.7 (-5.7) | 138.6 (-1.6) | 86% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | STAN | CHST |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 14-19 | 11-20 |
| Conference | 7-13 | 0-0 |
| Home | 9-6 | 8-0 |
| Away | 2-8 | 3-20 |
| Neutral | 3-5 | 0-0 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 70.3 | 66.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 68.4 | 74.3 |
| Massey | 4.9 (#100) | -6.2 (#282) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.32 (#209) | -1.40 (#298) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.07 (#183) | -1.62 (#291) |
| RPI | 0.468 (#240) | 0.431 (#302) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | STAN | CHST |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.6% | 40.9% |
| 3PT% | 31.8% | 32.1% |
| REB / G | 34.5 | 34.1 |
| OREB / G | 10.6 | 11.6 |
| AST / TO | 1.00 | 0.76 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.1% | 47.8% |
| TOV% | 19.9% | 21.6% |
| ORB% | 31.1% | 33.2% |
| FT Rate | 20.6% | 24.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.5% | 51.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.1% | 16.4% |
| DRB% | 76.3% | 65.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 20.7% | 26.3% |
Game Analysis
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