Betting Lines
| Spread | SFA -11.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 153.5 Under |
| Money | SFA -700 RGV +600 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | SFA win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SFA +17 | 149 | Won |
| Massey | SFA -12.3 (+4.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 160.5 (-11.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 85% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 89% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SFA -10.8 (+6.2) | 154.3 (-5.3) | 86% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SFA -12.4 (+4.6) | 152.4 (-3.4) | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SFA -9.9 (+7.1) | 155.2 (-6.2) | 85% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | SFA -10.5 (+6.5) | 155.8 (-6.8) | 83% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 14, 2026 | SFA 66 – 57 RGV |
| Dec 4, 2025 | SFA 73 – 60 RGV |
| Feb 11, 2025 | SFA 85 – 75 RGV |
| Dec 6, 2024 | RGV 68 – 65 SFA |
| Feb 9, 2024 | SFA 92 – 84 RGV |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | SFA | RGV |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 19-13 | 15-17 |
| Conference | 11-7 | 6-12 |
| Home | 12-4 | 11-6 |
| Away | 6-5 | 4-10 |
| Neutral | 1-4 | 1-1 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L3 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 74.1 | 75.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 72.7 | 81.2 |
| Massey | 1.9 (#135) | -6.8 (#291) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.46 (#130) | -0.65 (#242) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.43 (#142) | -0.99 (#252) |
| RPI | 0.520 (#142) | 0.476 (#219) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | SFA | RGV |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.1% | 46.6% |
| 3PT% | 38.5% | 33.9% |
| REB / G | 32.1 | 36.2 |
| OREB / G | 10.9 | 9.9 |
| AST / TO | 0.88 | 0.79 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.7% | 52.0% |
| TOV% | 21.9% | 22.7% |
| ORB% | 32.8% | 28.3% |
| FT Rate | 28.0% | 34.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 53.0% | 52.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 25.5% | 16.6% |
| DRB% | 66.3% | 70.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 29.1% | 27.6% |
Game Analysis
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