Betting Lines
| Spread | SFA -15.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 151.5 Over |
| Money | SFA -2000 RGV +1400 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | SFA win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SFA +8 | 176 | Won |
| Massey | SFA -15.4 (-7.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 152.8 (+23.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 92% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 97% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SFA -12.7 (-4.7) | 148.9 (+27.1) | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SFA -11.4 (-3.4) | 147.1 (+28.9) | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | SFA -11.2 (-3.2) | 147.1 (+28.9) | 86% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SFA -11.8 (-3.8) | 150.6 (+25.4) | 87% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 14, 2026 | SFA 66 – 57 RGV |
| Dec 4, 2025 | SFA 73 – 60 RGV |
| Feb 11, 2025 | SFA 85 – 75 RGV |
| Dec 6, 2024 | RGV 68 – 65 SFA |
| Jan 4, 2024 | SFA 85 – 78 RGV |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | SFA | RGV |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 18-15 | 6-25 |
| Conference | 10-10 | 2-18 |
| Home | 10-5 | 5-9 |
| Away | 5-8 | 1-13 |
| Neutral | 3-2 | 0-3 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 0-5 |
| Streak | L1 | L14 |
| Avg Pts For | 72.6 | 68.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.8 | 80.7 |
| Massey | 1.8 (#141) | -10.2 (#321) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.16 (#161) | -1.69 (#318) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.49 (#141) | -2.41 (#329) |
| RPI | 0.496 (#179) | 0.402 (#333) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | SFA | RGV |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.4% | 41.1% |
| 3PT% | 32.9% | 28.7% |
| REB / G | 36.0 | 33.9 |
| OREB / G | 12.1 | 10.2 |
| AST / TO | 0.72 | 0.77 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.8% | 45.3% |
| TOV% | 22.5% | 19.9% |
| ORB% | 35.1% | 26.6% |
| FT Rate | 30.3% | 31.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.6% | 51.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 23.1% | 19.7% |
| DRB% | 70.2% | 65.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 36.3% | 28.7% |
Game Analysis
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