Betting Lines
| Spread | SFA -9.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 154.0 Over |
| Money | RGV +328 SFA -430 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | RGV win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SFA +7 | 163 | Lost |
| Massey | SFA -8.8 (+1.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 148.5 (+14.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 24% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 5% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SFA -7.3 (+0.3) | 146.7 (+16.3) | 23% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SFA -7.8 (+0.8) | 146.3 (+16.7) | 27% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SFA -8.2 (+1.2) | 143.2 (+19.8) | 20% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | SFA -7.3 (+0.3) | 143.5 (+19.5) | 22% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 14, 2026 | SFA 66 – 57 RGV |
| Dec 4, 2025 | SFA 73 – 60 RGV |
| Feb 11, 2025 | SFA 85 – 75 RGV |
| Dec 6, 2024 | RGV 68 – 65 SFA |
| Feb 9, 2024 | SFA 92 – 84 RGV |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | RGV | SFA |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 6-25 | 18-15 |
| Conference | 2-18 | 10-10 |
| Home | 5-9 | 10-5 |
| Away | 1-13 | 5-8 |
| Neutral | 0-3 | 3-2 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L14 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 68.2 | 72.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 80.7 | 71.8 |
| Massey | -11.1 (#333) | 2.2 (#136) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.98 (#321) | 0.07 (#172) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -3.28 (#337) | 0.64 (#136) |
| RPI | 0.424 (#300) | 0.484 (#198) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | RGV | SFA |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 39.9% | 43.9% |
| 3PT% | 25.6% | 32.4% |
| REB / G | 32.7 | 37.0 |
| OREB / G | 10.4 | 12.1 |
| AST / TO | 0.75 | 0.66 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 43.5% | 49.4% |
| TOV% | 19.8% | 24.1% |
| ORB% | 26.8% | 34.3% |
| FT Rate | 34.1% | 27.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.0% | 45.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.1% | 23.5% |
| DRB% | 62.6% | 70.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 27.6% | 35.6% |
Game Analysis
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