Betting Lines
| Spread | RGV -5.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 143.5 Under |
| Money | RGV -250 SFA +210 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | RGV win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | RGV +3 | 133 | Won |
| Massey | RGV -14.4 (-11.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 144.1 (-11.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 94% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 98% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | RGV -10.7 (-7.7) | 140.0 (-7.0) | 84% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | RGV -9.0 (-6.0) | 138.8 (-5.8) | 82% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | RGV -8.8 (-5.8) | 141.7 (-8.7) | 86% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | RGV -9.6 (-6.6) | 141.5 (-8.5) | 82% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 14, 2026 | SFA 66 – 57 RGV |
| Dec 4, 2025 | SFA 73 – 60 RGV |
| Feb 11, 2025 | SFA 85 – 75 RGV |
| Feb 9, 2024 | SFA 92 – 84 RGV |
| Jan 4, 2024 | SFA 85 – 78 RGV |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | RGV | SFA |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 16-15 | 14-17 |
| Conference | 8-12 | 7-13 |
| Home | 12-4 | 8-8 |
| Away | 2-11 | 6-9 |
| Neutral | 2-0 | 0-0 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 3-2 |
| Streak | W2 | L4 |
| Avg Pts For | 74.1 | 64.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 76.8 | 69.4 |
| Massey | 6.0 (#80) | -3.5 (#221) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.88 (#99) | -0.87 (#254) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.43 (#92) | -1.24 (#252) |
| RPI | 0.552 (#95) | 0.456 (#245) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | RGV | SFA |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.6% | 42.3% |
| 3PT% | 33.2% | 32.7% |
| REB / G | 34.7 | 38.8 |
| OREB / G | 11.7 | 13.2 |
| AST / TO | 1.18 | 0.61 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 54.8% | 48.1% |
| TOV% | 17.0% | 27.8% |
| ORB% | 31.5% | 38.3% |
| FT Rate | 14.3% | 19.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 55.6% | 44.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.6% | 20.8% |
| DRB% | 70.8% | 69.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 30.4% | 21.1% |
Game Analysis
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