Betting Lines
| Spread | SFA -1.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 142.5 Over |
| Money | SFA -125 RGV +105 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | SFA win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SFA +10 | 160 | Won |
| Massey | SFA -1.4 (+8.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 138.4 (+21.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 53% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 58% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SFA -0.2 (+9.8) | 141.4 (+18.6) | 57% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SFA -1.5 (+8.5) | 144.4 (+15.6) | 63% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SFA -1.1 (+8.9) | 139.4 (+20.6) | 58% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | SFA -1.0 (+9.0) | 141.1 (+18.9) | 59% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 14, 2026 | SFA 66 – 57 RGV |
| Dec 4, 2025 | SFA 73 – 60 RGV |
| Dec 6, 2024 | RGV 68 – 65 SFA |
| Feb 9, 2024 | SFA 92 – 84 RGV |
| Jan 4, 2024 | SFA 85 – 78 RGV |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | SFA | RGV |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 14-17 | 16-15 |
| Conference | 7-13 | 8-12 |
| Home | 8-8 | 12-4 |
| Away | 6-9 | 2-11 |
| Neutral | 0-0 | 2-0 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L4 | W2 |
| Avg Pts For | 64.7 | 74.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 69.4 | 76.8 |
| Massey | -5.3 (#251) | -3.6 (#226) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.23 (#280) | -0.78 (#241) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.33 (#270) | -1.00 (#237) |
| RPI | 0.445 (#272) | 0.466 (#244) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | SFA | RGV |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 41.4% | 43.3% |
| 3PT% | 27.7% | 30.3% |
| REB / G | 36.4 | 35.3 |
| OREB / G | 13.0 | 11.9 |
| AST / TO | 0.74 | 1.11 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 46.4% | 50.9% |
| TOV% | 23.9% | 18.9% |
| ORB% | 36.3% | 32.1% |
| FT Rate | 21.5% | 18.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.4% | 52.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 21.2% | 18.3% |
| DRB% | 66.0% | 67.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 25.1% | 23.3% |
Game Analysis
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