Betting Lines
| Spread | SFA -1.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 144.5 Under |
| Money | RGV -108 SFA -112 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | RGV win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SFA +9 | 123 | Lost |
| Massey | SFA -1.3 (-7.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 141.6 (-18.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 24% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 21% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SFA -0.7 (-8.3) | 140.8 (-17.8) | 46% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SFA -0.1 (-8.9) | 140.0 (-17.0) | 52% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SFA -0.0 (-9.0) | 140.1 (-17.1) | 46% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | SFA -0.4 (-8.6) | 142.3 (-19.3) | 46% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 4, 2025 | SFA 73 – 60 RGV |
| Feb 11, 2025 | SFA 85 – 75 RGV |
| Dec 6, 2024 | RGV 68 – 65 SFA |
| Feb 9, 2024 | SFA 92 – 84 RGV |
| Jan 4, 2024 | SFA 85 – 78 RGV |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | RGV | SFA |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 19-14 | 28-6 |
| Conference | 14-8 | 20-2 |
| Home | 10-5 | 15-1 |
| Away | 8-8 | 12-4 |
| Neutral | 1-1 | 1-1 |
| Last 5 | 5-0 | 5-0 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 73.7 | 74.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 70.6 | 66.7 |
| Massey | 2.1 (#137) | 6.4 (#89) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.17 (#190) | 1.51 (#65) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.08 (#158) | 1.96 (#66) |
| RPI | 0.506 (#169) | 0.551 (#73) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | RGV | SFA |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.5% | 45.1% |
| 3PT% | 36.8% | 36.8% |
| REB / G | 34.0 | 36.9 |
| OREB / G | 9.4 | 12.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.26 | 1.39 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 54.3% | 52.5% |
| TOV% | 18.6% | 14.6% |
| ORB% | 29.1% | 34.3% |
| FT Rate | 21.6% | 20.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.6% | 46.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.0% | 17.3% |
| DRB% | 68.6% | 71.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 27.1% | 23.1% |
Game Analysis
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