Betting Lines
| Spread | SFA -6.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 143.5 Under |
| Money | SFA -285 RGV +230 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | SFA win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SFA +13 | 133 | Won |
| Massey | SFA -8.6 (+4.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 154.1 (-21.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 94% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 98% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SFA -6.9 (+6.1) | 147.3 (-14.3) | 78% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SFA -5.8 (+7.2) | 143.9 (-10.9) | 78% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SFA -6.5 (+6.5) | 145.6 (-12.6) | 78% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | SFA -6.5 (+6.5) | 146.5 (-13.5) | 75% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 14, 2026 | SFA 66 – 57 RGV |
| Feb 11, 2025 | SFA 85 – 75 RGV |
| Dec 6, 2024 | RGV 68 – 65 SFA |
| Feb 9, 2024 | SFA 92 – 84 RGV |
| Jan 4, 2024 | SFA 85 – 78 RGV |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | SFA | RGV |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 28-6 | 19-14 |
| Conference | 20-2 | 14-8 |
| Home | 15-1 | 10-5 |
| Away | 12-4 | 8-8 |
| Neutral | 1-1 | 1-1 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 74.9 | 73.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 66.7 | 70.6 |
| Massey | 4.5 (#111) | 0.9 (#154) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.84 (#114) | -0.87 (#243) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.34 (#103) | -1.26 (#245) |
| RPI | 0.547 (#105) | 0.446 (#262) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | SFA | RGV |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.7% | 46.3% |
| 3PT% | 36.3% | 41.7% |
| REB / G | 35.3 | 32.6 |
| OREB / G | 12.2 | 9.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.28 | 1.21 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.2% | 54.0% |
| TOV% | 15.6% | 16.3% |
| ORB% | 34.1% | 25.6% |
| FT Rate | 13.7% | 15.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 46.6% | 53.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.5% | 16.0% |
| DRB% | 69.5% | 67.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 34.2% | 29.8% |
Game Analysis
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