Betting Lines
| Spread | FUR -4.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 151.5 Over |
| Money | FUR -175 SAM +180 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | FUR win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | FUR +7 | 175 | Won |
| Massey | FUR -5.2 (+1.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 153.3 (+21.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 72% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 73% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | FUR -5.2 (+1.8) | 150.9 (+24.1) | 69% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | FUR -5.4 (+1.6) | 149.5 (+25.5) | 73% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | FUR -4.8 (+2.2) | 151.0 (+24.0) | 71% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | FUR -5.0 (+2.0) | 151.1 (+23.9) | 67% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 7, 2026 | FUR 86 – 81 SAM |
| Jan 29, 2026 | FUR 78 – 73 SAM |
| Jan 15, 2026 | FUR 77 – 73 SAM |
| Mar 9, 2025 | FUR 95 – 78 SAM |
| Feb 20, 2025 | FUR 80 – 72 SAM |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | FUR | SAM |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 28-8 | 21-11 |
| Conference | 15-3 | 15-3 |
| Home | 14-2 | 13-3 |
| Away | 8-3 | 8-7 |
| Neutral | 6-3 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 5-0 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 79.2 | 77.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.4 | 72.2 |
| Massey | 3.9 (#112) | 2.3 (#132) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.53 (#126) | 0.20 (#156) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.61 (#128) | 0.36 (#145) |
| RPI | 0.516 (#149) | 0.506 (#165) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | FUR | SAM |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 48.3% | 44.6% |
| 3PT% | 35.2% | 36.6% |
| REB / G | 34.3 | 35.4 |
| OREB / G | 9.1 | 10.4 |
| AST / TO | 1.36 | 0.96 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 56.5% | 53.1% |
| TOV% | 17.4% | 18.7% |
| ORB% | 27.6% | 30.8% |
| FT Rate | 22.0% | 29.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.1% | 51.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.6% | 19.7% |
| DRB% | 74.3% | 73.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.3% | 24.9% |
Game Analysis
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