Betting Lines
| Spread | PROV -9.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 138.5 Under |
| Money | PROV -450 BTLR +350 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | PROV win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | PROV +21 | 137 | Won |
| Massey | PROV -9.2 (+11.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 140.3 (-3.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 86% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 91% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | PROV -9.6 (+11.4) | 142.2 (-5.2) | 82% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | PROV -10.3 (+10.7) | 142.3 (-5.3) | 85% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | PROV -8.4 (+12.6) | 141.3 (-4.3) | 81% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | PROV -7.9 (+13.1) | 141.5 (-4.5) | 82% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 11, 2026 | PROV 91 – 81 BTLR |
| Feb 5, 2026 | PROV 97 – 87 BTLR |
| Dec 13, 2025 | BTLR 113 – 110 PROV |
| Mar 12, 2025 | BTLR 75 – 69 PROV |
| Feb 8, 2025 | BTLR 82 – 81 PROV |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | PROV | BTLR |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 21-12 | 14-18 |
| Conference | 13-7 | 6-14 |
| Home | 15-2 | 10-6 |
| Away | 6-6 | 3-9 |
| Neutral | 0-4 | 1-3 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L4 | L3 |
| Avg Pts For | 77.3 | 65.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.0 | 67.9 |
| Massey | 11.3 (#32) | 5.6 (#89) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.16 (#30) | 0.94 (#91) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.87 (#25) | 1.25 (#90) |
| RPI | 0.580 (#50) | 0.525 (#138) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | PROV | BTLR |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.6% | 45.1% |
| 3PT% | 34.2% | 35.3% |
| REB / G | 39.9 | 30.7 |
| OREB / G | 12.8 | 6.5 |
| AST / TO | 1.08 | 1.09 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.9% | 51.2% |
| TOV% | 18.6% | 17.3% |
| ORB% | 38.0% | 20.4% |
| FT Rate | 30.1% | 20.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.9% | 49.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.7% | 18.9% |
| DRB% | 73.6% | 70.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 18.5% | 14.8% |
Game Analysis
Loading game analysis…
Failed to load game analysis.