Betting Lines
| Spread | ALA -11.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 142.5 Under |
| Money | ALA -800 MSST +500 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ALA win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ALA +3 | 129 | Won |
| Massey | ALA -15.3 (-12.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 138.6 (-9.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 96% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 98% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | ALA -11.4 (-8.4) | 141.0 (-12.0) | 87% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | ALA -11.5 (-8.5) | 143.5 (-14.5) | 86% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | ALA -13.2 (-10.2) | 141.3 (-12.3) | 88% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | ALA -12.6 (-9.6) | 139.6 (-10.6) | 88% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 26, 2026 | ALA 100 – 75 MSST |
| Jan 14, 2026 | ALA 97 – 82 MSST |
| Feb 26, 2025 | ALA 111 – 73 MSST |
| Jan 30, 2025 | ALA 88 – 84 MSST |
| Feb 4, 2024 | ALA 99 – 67 MSST |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ALA | MSST |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 31-6 | 21-13 |
| Conference | 16-2 | 8-10 |
| Home | 15-0 | 12-4 |
| Away | 9-3 | 4-6 |
| Neutral | 7-3 | 5-3 |
| Last 5 | 5-0 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 81.8 | 65.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 68.3 | 61.0 |
| Massey | 20.4 (#3) | 8.6 (#61) |
| Bradley-Terry | 3.81 (#2) | 1.30 (#72) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 4.59 (#3) | 1.59 (#71) |
| RPI | 0.683 (#1) | 0.547 (#87) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ALA | MSST |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.1% | 40.4% |
| 3PT% | 34.6% | 28.5% |
| REB / G | 46.4 | 38.4 |
| OREB / G | 13.6 | 13.8 |
| AST / TO | 0.99 | 1.15 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.3% | 45.6% |
| TOV% | 19.6% | 18.5% |
| ORB% | 34.4% | 35.9% |
| FT Rate | 29.3% | 20.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 40.9% | 46.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.9% | 24.3% |
| DRB% | 72.3% | 71.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 21.7% | 16.6% |
Game Analysis
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