Betting Lines
| Spread | UNI -8.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 137.5 Over |
| Money | UNI -400 VAL +280 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UNI win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UNI +11 | 143 | Won |
| Massey | UNI -9.7 (+1.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 136.4 (+6.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 80% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UNI -7.4 (+3.6) | 138.0 (+5.0) | 77% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UNI -8.6 (+2.4) | 136.9 (+6.1) | 82% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UNI -7.3 (+3.7) | 138.0 (+5.0) | 79% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UNI -6.9 (+4.1) | 136.6 (+6.4) | 77% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 17, 2026 | VAL 54 – 44 UNI |
| Dec 30, 2025 | UNI 58 – 48 VAL |
| Mar 8, 2025 | VAL 64 – 63 UNI |
| Jan 4, 2025 | VAL 80 – 73 UNI |
| Feb 28, 2024 | UNI 68 – 54 VAL |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UNI | VAL |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 14-18 | 11-21 |
| Conference | 9-11 | 5-15 |
| Home | 8-8 | 8-7 |
| Away | 4-7 | 2-12 |
| Neutral | 2-3 | 1-2 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L5 |
| Avg Pts For | 69.0 | 68.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 70.6 | 74.0 |
| Massey | -0.6 (#186) | -6.7 (#289) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.09 (#184) | -0.87 (#266) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.03 (#173) | -1.13 (#268) |
| RPI | 0.498 (#179) | 0.438 (#294) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UNI | VAL |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.6% | 43.7% |
| 3PT% | 34.1% | 30.2% |
| REB / G | 33.4 | 33.1 |
| OREB / G | 8.5 | 7.7 |
| AST / TO | 0.92 | 0.98 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.0% | 49.0% |
| TOV% | 18.2% | 18.4% |
| ORB% | 25.4% | 22.3% |
| FT Rate | 21.6% | 20.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.8% | 51.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.0% | 16.4% |
| DRB% | 77.9% | 74.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 16.7% | 23.9% |
Game Analysis
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