I'll write on your tombstone, "I thank you for dinner." "Bungle in the Jungle" - Jethro Tull
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Baseline — Schedule

Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.

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45–15 on winners spread MAE 9.4 60 games
Matchup Spread Total Home win Result Pick
Gonzaga @ Portland -11.2 165.6 18% 82–67 ✓
Evansville @ Valparaiso +8.2 139.9 80% 69–81 ✓
Middle Tennessee @ Florida International -3.6 140.6 36% 74–82 ✗
Syracuse @ Virginia Tech +5.5 143.5 71% 70–85 ✓
Maine @ UAlbany -2.1 142.5 41% 72–68 ✓
Princeton @ Yale +4.2 142.4 66% 65–87 ✓
Utah State @ Fresno State -6.3 139.1 29% 70–53 ✓
Utah Tech @ Abilene Christian +0.1 150.3 53% 76–81 ✓
Western Michigan @ Central Michigan -0.2 145.1 51% 69–70 ✗
Long Island University @ St. Francis Brooklyn +8.7 137.9 85% 59–71 ✓
Georgia State @ Marshall +11.8 143.8 85% 65–103 ✓
Green Bay @ Wright State +16.8 148.1 89% 46–77 ✓
Florida Gulf Coast @ Liberty +11.4 129.6 86% 57–74 ✓
Bellarmine @ Eastern Kentucky +5.7 136.8 74% 63–73 ✓
California Baptist @ UT Rio Grande Valley -4.4 147.1 29% 58–64 ✗
Kansas @ Kentucky +2.1 142.8 65% 77–68 ✗
Arizona State @ Washington State +2.5 135.9 62% 58–75 ✓
Utah @ Oregon +1.9 139.8 66% 56–68 ✓
Ohio State @ Indiana +4.3 144.9 75% 70–86 ✓
Colorado State @ Boise State +11.0 143.7 85% 59–80 ✓
Grand Canyon @ Tarleton State -2.6 139.7 39% 62–81 ✗
Ole Miss @ Oklahoma State +9.3 132.7 77% 60–82 ✓
Georgia Southern @ Louisiana +9.5 141.8 83% 87–94 ✓
South Dakota @ St. Thomas +8.3 143.3 81% 81–67 ✗
Omaha @ Oral Roberts +19.7 153.9 91% 64–73 ✓
Denver @ Kansas City +4.5 140.5 71% 60–70 ✓
Vanderbilt @ Texas A&M +8.4 144.6 81% 66–72 ✓
San José State @ San Diego State +10.1 137.8 83% 51–72 ✓
Cal State Northridge @ UC Irvine +13.5 133.3 86% 56–81 ✓
Saint Mary's @ BYU -6.4 131.4 20% 57–56 ✓
California @ Stanford +9.7 132.9 84% 46–75 ✓
Nevada @ UNLV +0.3 146.3 53% 62–68 ✓
San Francisco @ San Diego -2.2 158.5 42% 94–81 ✓
Cal State Fullerton @ Cal Poly -3.7 131.2 33% 65–36 ✓
Montana State @ Sacramento State -0.5 132.4 42% 72–65 ✓
Montana @ Portland State +0.5 142.4 50% 73–67 ✗
Colorado @ Oregon State -6.8 130.0 29% 52–60 ✗
Pepperdine @ Loyola Marymount +10.4 154.7 85% 70–84 ✓
Cal State Bakersfield @ Hawai'i +10.5 125.7 84% 69–72 ✓
Providence @ Villanova -1.7 143.5 44% 70–65 ✓
Wichita State @ East Carolina +0.3 135.8 52% 85–72 ✗
Boston University @ Lehigh +3.6 135.5 72% 55–66 ✓
Michigan @ Penn State +5.3 142.7 74% 61–83 ✓
Saint Joseph's @ George Mason +5.2 143.6 71% 79–76 ✗
Michigan State @ Purdue +10.3 132.6 82% 61–77 ✓
Quinnipiac @ Iona +4.8 144.1 70% 72–78 ✓
Manhattan @ Canisius +3.7 139.7 60% 81–74 ✗
Oakland @ Robert Morris +4.1 145.7 68% 63–68 ✓
Siena @ Marist -5.0 132.3 30% 70–55 ✓
Rider @ Fairfield +0.6 131.0 48% 78–69 ✗
Georgetown @ St. John's +12.1 157.9 86% 73–75 ✓
Rutgers @ Iowa +1.6 141.4 61% 82–93 ✓
Detroit Mercy @ Youngstown State +9.7 160.5 83% 63–73 ✓
Southern Illinois @ Illinois State -5.1 131.6 34% 66–72 ✗
Drake @ Belmont +1.2 144.6 53% 79–61 ✗
Bradley @ UIC -11.5 139.5 17% 83–76 ✓
Furman @ UNC Greensboro +1.6 140.8 57% 69–57 ✗
IU Indianapolis @ Cleveland State +18.5 143.2 91% 72–78 ✓
South Florida @ SMU +0.6 149.4 60% 80–82 ✓
Memphis @ Tulsa -11.6 155.2 15% 80–68 ✓

Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.