Betting Lines
| Spread | GMU -5.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 139.5 Over |
| Money | GMU -250 JOES +188 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | GMU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | JOES +3 | 155 | Lost |
| Massey | GMU -7.3 (-10.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 141.4 (+13.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 84% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 87% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | GMU -5.5 (-8.5) | 143.6 (+11.4) | 70% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | GMU -5.8 (-8.8) | 143.0 (+12.0) | 71% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | GMU -4.9 (-7.9) | 143.0 (+12.0) | 72% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | GMU -5.2 (-8.2) | 143.6 (+11.4) | 71% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 26, 2026 | JOES 81 – 63 GMU |
| Feb 7, 2026 | GMU 60 – 52 JOES |
| Mar 15, 2025 | GMU 74 – 64 JOES |
| Feb 15, 2025 | GMU 58 – 57 JOES |
| Mar 13, 2024 | JOES 64 – 57 GMU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | GMU | JOES |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 20-13 | 16-17 |
| Conference | 11-7 | 8-10 |
| Home | 14-2 | 10-6 |
| Away | 4-7 | 4-7 |
| Neutral | 2-4 | 2-4 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 68.7 | 72.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 67.3 | 72.4 |
| Massey | 2.3 (#128) | -1.4 (#201) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.44 (#133) | -0.55 (#231) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.54 (#133) | -0.63 (#221) |
| RPI | 0.543 (#94) | 0.479 (#222) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | GMU | JOES |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.8% | 42.5% |
| 3PT% | 36.6% | 34.1% |
| REB / G | 36.2 | 34.9 |
| OREB / G | 9.3 | 10.7 |
| AST / TO | 1.02 | 0.95 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 54.0% | 50.2% |
| TOV% | 20.9% | 19.1% |
| ORB% | 28.6% | 29.4% |
| FT Rate | 21.7% | 22.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.2% | 50.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.7% | 19.5% |
| DRB% | 75.0% | 69.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 21.2% | 23.0% |
Game Analysis
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