Betting Lines
| Spread | FAIR -2.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 130.5 Over |
| Money | FAIR -138 RID +110 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | FAIR win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | RID +9 | 147 | Lost |
| Massey | FAIR -1.7 (-10.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 130.0 (+17.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 58% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 56% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | RID -0.6 (-8.4) | 130.3 (+16.7) | 47% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | RID -0.1 (-8.9) | 129.3 (+17.7) | 45% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | FAIR -0.9 (-9.9) | 129.2 (+17.8) | 54% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | FAIR -0.6 (-9.6) | 131.0 (+16.0) | 48% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 10, 2026 | FAIR 68 – 62 RID |
| Feb 22, 2025 | FAIR 69 – 49 RID |
| Dec 5, 2024 | FAIR 78 – 75 RID |
| Feb 9, 2024 | FAIR 84 – 67 RID |
| Dec 3, 2023 | FAIR 88 – 81 RID |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | FAIR | RID |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 13-18 | 16-14 |
| Conference | 9-11 | 13-7 |
| Home | 7-6 | 8-5 |
| Away | 4-10 | 8-6 |
| Neutral | 2-2 | 0-3 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 64.2 | 69.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 66.7 | 68.2 |
| Massey | -3.2 (#232) | -1.4 (#197) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.65 (#242) | -0.31 (#209) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.90 (#250) | -0.42 (#210) |
| RPI | 0.479 (#223) | 0.496 (#180) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | FAIR | RID |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 39.9% | 43.9% |
| 3PT% | 28.2% | 31.8% |
| REB / G | 34.2 | 36.5 |
| OREB / G | 10.2 | 11.2 |
| AST / TO | 0.77 | 0.94 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 45.2% | 48.1% |
| TOV% | 18.3% | 18.2% |
| ORB% | 29.2% | 33.4% |
| FT Rate | 28.2% | 22.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.6% | 49.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.5% | 16.6% |
| DRB% | 70.3% | 70.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 20.8% | 23.2% |
Game Analysis
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