Betting Lines
| Spread | LMU -9.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 153.5 Over |
| Money | LMU -500 PEPP +333 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | LMU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | LMU +14 | 154 | Won |
| Massey | LMU -10.3 (+3.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 153.6 (+0.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 95% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 94% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | LMU -10.3 (+3.7) | 157.4 (-3.4) | 85% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | LMU -9.6 (+4.4) | 156.0 (-2.0) | 86% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | LMU -10.2 (+3.8) | 153.0 (+1.0) | 85% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | LMU -10.4 (+3.6) | 154.7 (-0.7) | 85% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 14, 2026 | PEPP 90 – 89 LMU |
| Feb 23, 2025 | LMU 93 – 82 PEPP |
| Feb 12, 2025 | LMU 69 – 60 PEPP |
| Feb 11, 2024 | PEPP 72 – 63 LMU |
| Jan 21, 2024 | LMU 68 – 61 PEPP |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | LMU | PEPP |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 19-12 | 9-22 |
| Conference | 9-7 | 2-14 |
| Home | 13-3 | 8-8 |
| Away | 4-7 | 0-12 |
| Neutral | 2-2 | 1-2 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 0-5 |
| Streak | L1 | L5 |
| Avg Pts For | 74.5 | 76.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 73.9 | 81.8 |
| Massey | 6.0 (#85) | -0.8 (#185) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.28 (#70) | -0.94 (#270) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.43 (#79) | -0.60 (#217) |
| RPI | 0.576 (#52) | 0.468 (#247) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | LMU | PEPP |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.0% | 45.0% |
| 3PT% | 35.8% | 35.3% |
| REB / G | 35.7 | 35.4 |
| OREB / G | 9.6 | 9.3 |
| AST / TO | 0.91 | 1.00 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 53.7% | 51.3% |
| TOV% | 18.2% | 18.3% |
| ORB% | 28.7% | 25.4% |
| FT Rate | 20.7% | 18.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.4% | 51.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.3% | 17.3% |
| DRB% | 75.3% | 69.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.7% | 21.9% |
Game Analysis
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