Betting Lines
| Spread | LMU -6.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 147.5 Over |
| Money | LMU -270 PEPP +220 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | LMU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | LMU +11 | 175 | Won |
| Massey | LMU -6.6 (+4.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 141.9 (+33.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 89% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 90% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | LMU -6.1 (+4.9) | 146.1 (+28.9) | 76% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | LMU -5.0 (+6.0) | 143.8 (+31.2) | 72% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | LMU -6.3 (+4.7) | 143.1 (+31.9) | 75% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | LMU -5.9 (+5.1) | 145.2 (+29.8) | 78% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 14, 2026 | PEPP 90 – 89 LMU |
| Feb 12, 2025 | LMU 69 – 60 PEPP |
| Feb 11, 2024 | PEPP 72 – 63 LMU |
| Jan 21, 2024 | LMU 68 – 61 PEPP |
| Feb 26, 2023 | LMU 75 – 67 PEPP |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | LMU | PEPP |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 17-15 | 13-22 |
| Conference | 8-10 | 4-14 |
| Home | 11-6 | 7-9 |
| Away | 3-8 | 2-11 |
| Neutral | 3-1 | 4-2 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 70.3 | 71.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 72.1 | 77.2 |
| Massey | -0.5 (#168) | -4.0 (#233) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.33 (#145) | -1.21 (#283) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.31 (#150) | -1.25 (#265) |
| RPI | 0.515 (#159) | 0.440 (#295) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | LMU | PEPP |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.8% | 43.2% |
| 3PT% | 31.9% | 33.8% |
| REB / G | 33.3 | 34.9 |
| OREB / G | 7.9 | 9.8 |
| AST / TO | 1.15 | 1.31 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.2% | 48.9% |
| TOV% | 15.5% | 16.9% |
| ORB% | 22.7% | 27.5% |
| FT Rate | 20.4% | 23.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.0% | 52.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.8% | 15.5% |
| DRB% | 69.3% | 71.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.0% | 20.7% |
Game Analysis
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