Betting Lines
| Spread | LMU -2.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 144.5 Under |
| Money | PEPP +120 LMU -140 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | PEPP win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | LMU +9 | 129 | Lost |
| Massey | LMU -0.8 (-8.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 140.4 (-11.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 20% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 16% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | LMU -1.4 (-7.6) | 141.7 (-12.7) | 42% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | LMU -0.5 (-8.5) | 141.9 (-12.9) | 46% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | LMU -1.0 (-8.0) | 140.1 (-11.1) | 42% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | LMU -1.6 (-7.4) | 140.5 (-11.5) | 44% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 14, 2026 | PEPP 90 – 89 LMU |
| Feb 23, 2025 | LMU 93 – 82 PEPP |
| Feb 11, 2024 | PEPP 72 – 63 LMU |
| Jan 21, 2024 | LMU 68 – 61 PEPP |
| Feb 26, 2023 | LMU 75 – 67 PEPP |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | PEPP | LMU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 13-22 | 17-15 |
| Conference | 4-14 | 8-10 |
| Home | 7-9 | 11-6 |
| Away | 2-11 | 3-8 |
| Neutral | 4-2 | 3-1 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 71.8 | 70.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 77.2 | 72.1 |
| Massey | -2.9 (#215) | 1.1 (#146) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.17 (#277) | 0.77 (#111) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.32 (#270) | 0.96 (#104) |
| RPI | 0.444 (#275) | 0.530 (#121) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | PEPP | LMU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.7% | 42.9% |
| 3PT% | 33.2% | 32.7% |
| REB / G | 34.8 | 34.2 |
| OREB / G | 9.5 | 8.3 |
| AST / TO | 1.29 | 1.16 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.2% | 49.5% |
| TOV% | 16.9% | 16.1% |
| ORB% | 27.1% | 23.8% |
| FT Rate | 23.6% | 21.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.3% | 46.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.1% | 15.4% |
| DRB% | 71.9% | 69.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 21.5% | 22.8% |
Game Analysis
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