Betting Lines
| Spread | LMU -6.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 145.5 Under |
| Money | LMU -250 PEPP +260 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | LMU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | PEPP +9 | 135 | Lost |
| Massey | LMU -7.2 (-16.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 145.0 (-10.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 79% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 80% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | LMU -5.0 (-14.0) | 145.1 (-10.1) | 70% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | LMU -6.0 (-15.0) | 143.0 (-8.0) | 72% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | LMU -5.0 (-14.0) | 144.1 (-9.1) | 72% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | LMU -5.1 (-14.1) | 144.9 (-9.9) | 73% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 14, 2026 | PEPP 90 – 89 LMU |
| Feb 23, 2025 | LMU 93 – 82 PEPP |
| Feb 12, 2025 | LMU 69 – 60 PEPP |
| Jan 21, 2024 | LMU 68 – 61 PEPP |
| Feb 26, 2023 | LMU 75 – 67 PEPP |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | LMU | PEPP |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 12-19 | 13-20 |
| Conference | 5-11 | 5-11 |
| Home | 8-8 | 9-8 |
| Away | 2-7 | 3-8 |
| Neutral | 2-4 | 1-4 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 0-5 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 71.2 | 72.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.5 | 75.2 |
| Massey | 0.3 (#160) | -3.5 (#230) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.41 (#212) | -1.12 (#282) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.43 (#210) | -1.10 (#265) |
| RPI | 0.467 (#238) | 0.437 (#293) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | LMU | PEPP |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.5% | 44.6% |
| 3PT% | 35.9% | 33.7% |
| REB / G | 35.5 | 33.1 |
| OREB / G | 10.2 | 10.5 |
| AST / TO | 1.00 | 1.19 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.8% | 50.0% |
| TOV% | 17.2% | 16.0% |
| ORB% | 30.4% | 29.4% |
| FT Rate | 23.3% | 22.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.3% | 55.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 12.9% | 17.5% |
| DRB% | 73.9% | 74.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.7% | 26.8% |
Game Analysis
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