Betting Lines
| Spread | LMU -5.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 147.5 Over |
| Money | PEPP +180 LMU -218 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | PEPP win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | PEPP +1 | 179 | Won |
| Massey | LMU -5.3 (+6.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 141.5 (+37.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 24% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 21% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | LMU -5.1 (+6.1) | 144.8 (+34.2) | 30% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | LMU -5.6 (+6.6) | 141.5 (+37.5) | 27% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | LMU -5.5 (+6.5) | 141.9 (+37.1) | 30% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | LMU -5.8 (+6.8) | 144.3 (+34.7) | 30% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 23, 2025 | LMU 93 – 82 PEPP |
| Feb 12, 2025 | LMU 69 – 60 PEPP |
| Feb 11, 2024 | PEPP 72 – 63 LMU |
| Jan 21, 2024 | LMU 68 – 61 PEPP |
| Feb 26, 2023 | LMU 75 – 67 PEPP |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | PEPP | LMU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 9-23 | 15-17 |
| Conference | 4-14 | 6-12 |
| Home | 7-10 | 10-8 |
| Away | 2-11 | 4-7 |
| Neutral | 0-2 | 1-2 |
| Last 5 | 0-5 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 70.4 | 72.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 79.7 | 72.6 |
| Massey | -7.5 (#285) | 0.7 (#152) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.63 (#310) | 0.05 (#160) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.71 (#285) | 0.20 (#152) |
| RPI | 0.419 (#321) | 0.499 (#188) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | PEPP | LMU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 40.3% | 44.4% |
| 3PT% | 29.0% | 34.3% |
| REB / G | 32.0 | 34.0 |
| OREB / G | 9.7 | 9.2 |
| AST / TO | 0.95 | 1.01 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 46.1% | 51.6% |
| TOV% | 18.9% | 18.1% |
| ORB% | 27.2% | 26.8% |
| FT Rate | 26.2% | 21.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 53.8% | 48.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.9% | 16.7% |
| DRB% | 66.0% | 67.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 20.7% | 24.5% |
Game Analysis
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