Betting Lines
| Spread | LMU -2.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 159.5 Under |
| Money | PEPP +105 LMU -133 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | PEPP win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | LMU +8 | 142 | Lost |
| Massey | LMU -0.5 (-7.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 158.6 (-16.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 24% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 27% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | LMU -0.5 (-7.5) | 159.0 (-17.0) | 49% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | LMU -2.2 (-5.8) | 155.6 (-13.6) | 38% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | LMU -0.1 (-7.9) | 158.5 (-16.5) | 47% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | LMU -0.2 (-7.8) | 159.2 (-17.2) | 47% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 14, 2026 | PEPP 90 – 89 LMU |
| Feb 23, 2025 | LMU 93 – 82 PEPP |
| Feb 12, 2025 | LMU 69 – 60 PEPP |
| Feb 11, 2024 | PEPP 72 – 63 LMU |
| Jan 21, 2024 | LMU 68 – 61 PEPP |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | PEPP | LMU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 9-22 | 19-12 |
| Conference | 2-14 | 9-7 |
| Home | 8-8 | 13-3 |
| Away | 0-12 | 4-7 |
| Neutral | 1-2 | 2-2 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L5 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 76.9 | 74.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 81.8 | 73.9 |
| Massey | -0.5 (#180) | 3.6 (#113) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.76 (#247) | 1.03 (#88) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.56 (#225) | 1.15 (#95) |
| RPI | 0.469 (#243) | 0.548 (#92) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | PEPP | LMU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.6% | 45.5% |
| 3PT% | 35.1% | 36.7% |
| REB / G | 35.3 | 35.4 |
| OREB / G | 9.5 | 10.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.05 | 0.89 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.9% | 53.5% |
| TOV% | 18.2% | 18.3% |
| ORB% | 26.2% | 29.6% |
| FT Rate | 19.5% | 21.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.3% | 51.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.8% | 15.7% |
| DRB% | 69.4% | 75.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.1% | 25.4% |
Game Analysis
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