Betting Lines
| Spread | HAW -16.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 118.5 Over |
| Money | HAW -4000 CSUB +1100 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | HAW win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | HAW +3 | 141 | Won |
| Massey | HAW -15.1 (-12.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 114.4 (+26.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 94% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 97% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | HAW -10.5 (-7.5) | 126.7 (+14.3) | 84% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | HAW -11.3 (-8.3) | 126.4 (+14.6) | 84% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | HAW -10.1 (-7.1) | 126.6 (+14.4) | 85% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | HAW -10.5 (-7.5) | 125.7 (+15.3) | 84% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 13, 2026 | HAW 89 – 74 CSUB |
| Jan 23, 2026 | HAW 98 – 71 CSUB |
| Mar 7, 2025 | CSUB 76 – 64 HAW |
| Jan 19, 2025 | HAW 81 – 70 CSUB |
| Mar 10, 2024 | HAW 74 – 57 CSUB |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | HAW | CSUB |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 22-11 | 11-22 |
| Conference | 13-7 | 6-14 |
| Home | 13-5 | 6-8 |
| Away | 6-4 | 3-12 |
| Neutral | 2-2 | 2-2 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 66.5 | 59.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 62.0 | 66.1 |
| Massey | 2.9 (#124) | -8.6 (#316) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.52 (#129) | -1.57 (#313) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.92 (#110) | -1.77 (#305) |
| RPI | 0.508 (#163) | 0.405 (#332) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | HAW | CSUB |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.9% | 39.6% |
| 3PT% | 32.0% | 31.8% |
| REB / G | 35.7 | 31.7 |
| OREB / G | 10.4 | 9.5 |
| AST / TO | 0.88 | 0.72 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 48.6% | 43.3% |
| TOV% | 18.5% | 21.0% |
| ORB% | 30.9% | 28.3% |
| FT Rate | 24.4% | 19.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 43.5% | 51.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.6% | 20.0% |
| DRB% | 71.7% | 70.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 20.7% | 27.2% |
Game Analysis
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