Betting Lines
| Spread | HAW -17.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 144.5 Over |
| Money | HAW -2100 CSUB +1100 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | HAW win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | HAW +27 | 169 | Won |
| Massey | HAW -19.6 (+7.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 141.4 (+27.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 91% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 96% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | HAW -16.8 (+10.2) | 142.5 (+26.5) | 88% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | HAW -14.1 (+12.9) | 142.9 (+26.1) | 88% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | HAW -14.9 (+12.1) | 139.1 (+29.9) | 89% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | HAW -16.6 (+10.4) | 139.6 (+29.4) | 88% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 13, 2026 | HAW 89 – 74 CSUB |
| Mar 7, 2025 | CSUB 76 – 64 HAW |
| Jan 19, 2025 | HAW 81 – 70 CSUB |
| Mar 10, 2024 | HAW 74 – 57 CSUB |
| Jan 5, 2024 | HAW 78 – 67 CSUB |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | HAW | CSUB |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 24-9 | 8-24 |
| Conference | 14-6 | 2-18 |
| Home | 16-3 | 6-11 |
| Away | 6-5 | 1-13 |
| Neutral | 2-1 | 1-0 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L15 |
| Avg Pts For | 78.7 | 72.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.2 | 83.4 |
| Massey | 6.5 (#93) | -9.8 (#309) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.70 (#106) | -1.02 (#259) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.86 (#109) | -1.74 (#287) |
| RPI | 0.509 (#152) | 0.424 (#310) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | HAW | CSUB |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.5% | 40.8% |
| 3PT% | 31.9% | 29.8% |
| REB / G | 38.5 | 35.1 |
| OREB / G | 10.9 | 12.3 |
| AST / TO | 1.00 | 0.74 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.7% | 45.1% |
| TOV% | 19.6% | 19.7% |
| ORB% | 32.9% | 33.4% |
| FT Rate | 29.6% | 32.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 44.1% | 52.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.0% | 18.8% |
| DRB% | 74.1% | 64.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.9% | 31.0% |
Game Analysis
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